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Poll: Specter's numbers dive since 'conversion'

The strong backing of Democratic Party leaders has done little to change slumping public support for the party's newest convert, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter. Only 28 percent of all those surveyed say that he deserves re-election, according to the latest Keystone Poll, and double that number say it's time for a change.

The strong backing of Democratic Party leaders has done little to change slumping public support for the party's newest convert, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter. Only 28 percent of all those surveyed say that he deserves re-election, according to the latest Keystone Poll, and double that number say it's time for a change.

Specter's party switch, announced April 28, has hurt his job-performance ratings among Democrats as well as Republicans, according to a telephone survey of 498 registered voters, conducted last week by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.

Back in March, before the switch, roughly half the voters in each party said that Specter was doing an "excellent" or "good" job in the Senate.

Those numbers have plunged in the latest survey. Whereas 57 percent of Democrats gave him good or excellent ratings in March, only 46 percent rate him as highly now. Among Republicans, 49 percent rated his job performance as good or excellent in March, and only 18 percent gave him those ratings last week.

"Even more troubling for the senator is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40 percent to 28 percent," said the poll's director, G. Terry Madonna.

"I think what he's got going is the worst of both worlds," Madonna said. "Republicans have fallen away from him because he left his party, and Democrats are unhappy with him for lots of different reasons. . . . Voters have a lot of uncertainty about what he is likely to do."

On the re-election front, Specter is holding onto support from Democrats. In March, 41 percent of Democrats said he deserved re-election, and last week the number was up to 43 percent.

But that slight pickup in Democratic support is outweighed by reduced backing from Republicans and independents. Only 11 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of independents told last week's pollsters that Specter deserved re-election.

Of course, you can't beat somebody with nobody, and through five terms in the Senate, Specter has been a master of survival.

Specter already has endorsements from President Obama, Vice President Biden, Gov. Rendell and Sen. Casey. The only elected Democrat openly ready to challenge Specter is Delaware County's relatively unknown two-term Congressman, Joe Sestak, and the Republican nomination looks likely to go to former Congressman Pat Toomey, former leader of the conservative Club for Growth.

The Franklin & Marshall pollsters asked 258 registered Democrats how they would vote in a Specter-Sestak matchup, and nearly half - 48 percent - said that they didn't know. Specter got 33 percent, Sestak 13 percent, and 6 percent said that they'd support another candidate.

"Most of what we see in this horse-race question is name recognition," Madonna said. "[Sestak] is literally an unknown quantity outside his own district. There's a certain amount of fluidity left in this race, and it's up to Sestak to frame a campaign to take advantage of the situation, if he can."

Specter's top-tier endorsements are likely to provide "every nickel that he needs" to fund his re-election campaign, Madonna said, while his lesser-known challengers struggle for funds and recognition.