Summer Dreams

Right about now, everybody who cares about business at the Jersey Shore is wondering whether the summer of 2007 will be a tourist party or a bust.

There are worries that $3-a-gallon gas will drive people away, and that a discouraging storm-season forecast will spell disaster for the Shore tourist economy.

But the early signs are good. Tourists seem to be buying, renting and dining the way they did during the boom summer of 1999. Ocean City, which has the Shore's biggest stock of seasonal rental units, reports about 10 percent more bookings than a year ago.

Even in beleaguered Surf City on Long Beach Island, where unexploded World War I-era munitions were inadvertently dredged from the ocean floor and dumped on the beach during a sand-replenishment project, business is booming.

"We've had no problems renting properties anywhere on the island this year," said Ric Martel, a manager at Prudential Zack Shore Properties on Long Beach Island.

The Army Corps of Engineers says it has removed "all detectable ordnance," and the beaches reopened last week. Authorities say more undiscovered ammo might lie deeper than three feet, so the island towns have posted signs warning against beach digging.

For Shore businesses, 1999 was the season of dreams.

"That's the last time, I think, we all had a really good summer," said Randy Wagner, 32, who has been trying to make a go of a small beach-equipment rental business in Wildwood - chairs, umbrellas, coolers, baby cribs - for 10 years.

The summer of 1999 featured good weather and record profits for many businesses from Sea Bright to Cape May, propelling New Jersey's $37.6-billion-a-year tourism industry.

Shore tourism numbers have grown each year since; last year logged a 5 percent gain over 2005. Still, some Shore businesses report flagging profits.

They say they are waiting for the next big year. And as the good-weather days again seem to be lining up neatly in a row, many hope this is it.

"I'm singing that Prince song every day now, hoping that people will continue all summer to come down like they already have been and want to 'party like it's 1999,' " Wagner said as he patched brightly colored canvas sun umbrellas in his small shop. "Since '99, my numbers have been down. It's time to see a turnaround."

Wagner, like most businesspeople at the Shore, makes most of his annual income in the three-month summer season. Like others, he said his numbers this year already were headed in the right direction.

AAA Mid-Atlantic said there was no indication that fewer people planned to take to the roads this summer.

And 948,300 motorists were expected to travel New Jersey's roads - many in the Shore region - this holiday weekend, said David Weinstein, a spokesman for the organization.

"Our indicators are that even more people than last year, just under 2 percent more, will be on the roads for Memorial Day weekend," he said. "As far as the Jersey Shore is concerned, we expect to see the numbers climb overall for the summer despite record-high gas prices."

Proof may already be at hand.

"I've had the best preseason sales period this year than I have had since 1999," said Michael Fink, who owns two beach-clothing boutiques called Seasons of Color, one in Sea Isle City and the other in Ocean City. "I think it's going to be a fabulous summer."

Fink was among those at the Shore who said gas prices, the munitions on Long Beach Island, and National Weather Service predictions for a bad coastal-storm season weren't dampening the summer outlook.

"If the weather holds out, I think we're in for the best summer we've had in years," Fink said.

In Ocean City - with 15,000 rental units, more than any other Shore town - Berger Realty agents said they had rented about 450 more units, or about 10 percent more, than a year ago.

"We were surprised at the numbers because you never know what high gas prices are actually going to do to the market," said Theresa Maina, who has been an agent at Berger for seven years. "But this year, they seem to be driving people, literally and figuratively, back to the beach."

Other real estate agents up and down the coast echoed Maina's observations.

Home sales, sagging in most parts of the country, are up about 9 percent in Ocean and Monmouth Counties compared with last year's first quarter, according to the Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick, N.J.

"While there has been a downturn in the housing market nationwide, here in Monmouth and Ocean Counties we aren't feeling the effects the way the rest of the nation is," said Ellen W. Kale, president of the Monmouth County Association of Realtors.

While Kale doesn't hold to the 1999 theory, others who have seen many Shore seasons come and go said good and bad summers happened in waves.

"A lot of the success or the failure of a summer season is weather-driven," said Mark Soifer, who has been director of public relations for Ocean City for 35 years. "You'll get a couple really good years, then a few not-so-great years, then it will get better again. But I think we're going to have a great summer, based on the number of people we've seen coming down for our preseason events like the Doo Dah Parade. People want to be at the Shore no matter how much gas costs."

Will Morey, whose family has operated Morey's Piers amusements on the Wildwood boardwalk since 1969, agreed.

"Sure, I'd like to see lower gas prices, but I do think high gas prices will ultimately make people want to stay closer to home over the summer driving season. And we are within close range of a big, big, big market," Morey said. "Now we just have to hope the weather is good. And that is something no one can control."

For a complete guide to the Shore, including what to do and where to eat,

go to http://go.philly.

com/shoreguideEndText

For a complete guide to the Shore, go to http://go.philly.com/shoreguideEndText