Bolaris: Storm on the horizon, but not before a taste of summer
Coming soon: a major coastal storm complete with high winds, flooding rains, coastal flooding and temps plummeting into the 40s. But it won't stay dreary for long.
After Monday's brisk temperatures and stray showers, the weather will be turning for the better by Wednesday with highs rising into the pleasant 70s.
Computer models during the past 10 days have been all over the place, with a possible forecast of a major coastal storm complete with high winds, flooding rains, coastal flooding and temps plummeting into the 40s. Since last week it has been a game of weather ping-pong, with the pendulum swinging back and forth from a big old nasty storm to absolutely nothing.
Whenever the models are in such disarray, uncertainty with low confidence plagues your local meteorologist. Since we are nearing the timeframe in which the potential exists, it's time to make an educated guess.
My experience tells me that an upper low -- that is, a storm system in the upper atmosphere -- will drop from the Great Lakes as a storm system starts to take shape Thursday along the Carolina coast.
Usually an upper low helps to pull a developing storm system on a more western track than computer models indicate. So instead of the Carolina storm passing well out to sea, a jog to the west will allow this coastal storm to make an impact on the Philadelphia region. The Jersey Shore and Delaware beaches will feel the brunt of the storm with strong northeasterly winds of 35 m.p.h. It may lead to coastal flooding and a chilly rain for Thursday night into Friday. Philadelphia should be on the western periphery -- meaning we'll get some rain and a gusty winds on Friday along with unseasonably cool temperatures.
May Day in Philadelphia will likely will be chilly, windy and wet. But north and west of the city the chances of rain will decrease.
It won't stay dreary for long. On Saturday, we should see temperatures rebounding into the 60s and Sunday rising back into the 70s.
And for the first time this season, the 80 degree mark will spread summer fever across the entire region by Monday or Tuesday next week with a chance of a few boomers as Cinco de Mayo arrives with a summertime bang.
Follow John Bolaris on Twitter @weathersavior or @johnbolaris.