Bolaris: Mother Nature to take a third shot
Don't put away the snow shovels yet.
The latest computer guidance is strongly suggesting a major mid-Atlantic and Northeast storm will strike this weekend.
This one may be a more typical winter storm for this region, with heavy wet snows possible across sections of the northwest suburbs; snow, sleet and rain on the I-95 corridor, including Philly, Washington, D.C. and New York City; and the brunt of the storm aimed for parts of New York state and New England.
The set-up: The storm will move through the Tennessee Valley late Friday into Saturday with snow, sleet and rain.
A secondary coastal storm will start to take shape later Saturday somewhere around the Lower Chesapeake. This storm will organize itself and then intensify as it slowly begins to move up the coast to a position off the New England coast by Sunday afternoon.
Keep in mind, this track is in the very early stages of computer guidance and therefore subject to significant error, but this far out it could mean snow arrives in Philly by Saturday afternoon with a changeover to sleet and then rain by Saturday night with some accumulation possible.
But if secondary development is rapid enough, it could cut off the warm level interjection and lead to the possibility of heavy wet snow across our suburbs to the north and west.
At this time, New York state - on a line west to east about 58 miles north of New York City in the lower Hudson Valley and into interior New England - would stand the best chance of a true Nor'easter complete with wind-driven heavy snow.
Again, we are still very early in the computer cycles but I do see enough evidence to warrant a HEADS-UP for this weekend.
You will see and hear several different forecasts over the next 72 hours until models concur on storm development , intensity, track and whether secondary coastal development comes to fruition .
Will keep you informed right here at Philly.com.