Polls show Adler, Runyan running close

New Jersey's closest House race has gotten even closer, according to a pair of independent polls released Tuesday.

Rutgers University's Eagleton Poll has freshman Democratic U.S. Rep. John Adler dead even at 44 percent with Republican challenger Jon Runyan, a former Eagles tackle. The margin of error in the Rutgers poll is plus or minus 5.6 percentage points

Monmouth University had Runyan with 48 percent and Adler with 43 percent among likely voters. The margin of error in the Monmouth poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

In both polls, Runyan gained support among previously undecided voters. And Runyan is benefiting from his widely publicized allegations that Adler supporters propped up a fake tea party candidate to siphon votes away from him.

Independent voters, in particular, are moving away from Adler to Runyan in cases where they have heard about Runyan's accusations, Monmouth polling director Patrick Murray said.

"They [independent voters] don't like these kinds of political shenanigans," Murray said. "This represents the worst of what they believe happens in politics."

Adler has carefully said that no one on his campaign was involved with supporting the candidate, Peter DeStefano, who is running under the banner of NJ Tea Party. DeStefano has denied being a fake candidate. Local tea party groups have endorsed Runyan, saying they have no ties to DeStefano.

David Redlawsk, Eagleton Poll director, said that undecided voters generally move toward a challenger as they make late decisions in an election.

"What we're seeing now is what was inevitable - a tightening to where I think it really is a toss-up," Redlawsk said. "Now it really does depend on the ground game."

Rutgers polled 292 likely voters on Saturday and Sunday. Redlawsk said Runyan is "benefiting from the general environment. This is a Republican district."

But Redlawsk said that, given the Republican wind blowing this year, Runyan should have been doing better earlier in the race. He said Adler's rigorous campaigning and 4-1 money advantage seem to be keeping the race close.

DeStefano came in at 4 percent in the Eagleton poll.

The district was drawn as a Republican district and held by Republicans for decades until 2008, when Adler became the first Democrat in memory to win it. Last year, though, it voted for Republican Gov. Christie.

Redlawsk said that half of his respondents had heard of Runyan's charges that Adler supporters propped up DeStefano to siphon votes from Runyan.

The Monmouth Poll, which had Runyan with 48 percent and Adler with 43 percent of 1,037 likely voters, was conducted from Friday through Monday. DeStefano and two other independent candidates took a combined 5 percent.

On moving up in the polls, Runyan said earlier: "We're moving in the right direction. . . . It's a matter of making the push here in the final few days."

Adler's campaign released a statement saying he "always knew this election would be tight, but his hard work and accessibility will pay off in the end."

Last Friday, Richard Stockton College released a poll that showed Runyan ahead with 40 percent to 37 percent, a statistical tie because the margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

But all this could change as both campaigns and outside groups increase TV advertising in the final days leading to Tuesday's election.

On Tuesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee started running $700,000 worth of ads in the Philadelphia market attacking Runyan.

Using cartoon images to break through the clutter of campaign commercials, the committee started running an ad attacking Runyan for taking a legal tax break on his Mount Laurel estate.

A narrator, speaking as if he's reading a story to children, says: "Millionaire Jon Runyan lives in a mansion but claims he's a farmer. That's how he avoided paying his fair share of property taxes."

The narrator speaks over barnyard sounds of a donkey, cows, and a rooster. He concludes by saying: "If Farmer Jon won't pay his taxes, how can you trust him to do right by us?"

Runyan has defended the tax break as legal and notes that he pays more than $60,000 in property taxes on the five acres of land that contain his home.

The Runyan and Adler campaigns have been running most of their commercials on cable television in Ocean and Burlington Counties. Runyan has benefited from a pair of ads sponsored by the American Future Fund that attack Adler.

In the final joint appearance of the campaign Tuesday night, the candidates faced off at Ponzio's Diner in Cherry Hill in a debate that aired live on 1210 AM. For 45 minutes, they stood in an aisle and took questions from radio host Dom Giordano and some of the approximately 100 passionate partisans gathered at surrounding tables. Runyan had a red microphone; Adler had a blue one.

The biggest applause of the night came after Runyan confidently declared that he had not read the Obama health-care bill, which both candidates oppose.

"I'm not sure you've ever read one bill in Congress," Adler said.

Runyan responded: "I'm not in Congress."

After the applause died down, Runyan said he had read "several bills," but believes legislation should be short and simple enough that bills can be handed out on the street and easily understood.

"I'm scared by that thinking," Adler said. "A lot of these issues are very complex."

The candidates disagreed on few specific issues and tread over ground largely familiar to voters. There were heated exchanges over Runyan's donkeys, and over Adler's political consultants, regarding what Runyan says was their role in DeStefano's NJ Tea Party candidacy.

When Giordano raised a new issue - the controversial firing of NPR personality Juan Williams over his remarks about Muslims - neither candidate said NPR's federal funding should be eliminated, as conservative radio hosts have advocated.

Adler indicated he opposed the firing but would not answer the question about cutting funding, and Runyan made a reference to concerns about NPR management.

Despite the aggressive exchanges, the candidates appeared to talk amicably with each other and Giordano during commercial breaks.