Not necessarily, according to a new study co-authored by Princeton University economist Alan Krueger.
The main finding: if the leaders of a given world power make decisions that are unpopular in a particular Middle Eastern or African country, terrorists from that country are more likely to launch an attack on the larger country.
The research, published in tomorrow's issue of the journal Science, is a rare application of rigorous statistical techniques to a shadowy field in which hard information is tough to come by.
Krueger, who is on leave from Princeton as chief economist for the U.S. Treasury Department, cautioned that he did not prove terrorism is caused by negative opinion among the broader public of the country in question. The analysis finds only a statistical link between the two.
But several foreign policy experts said the research could prove valuable, both as a tool in better predicting which countries might harbor terrorists, and as a reminder that our actions matter.
"The implication is we need to shape our policy, at least certainly in the Middle East, in ways that do not engender more hatred," said Paul Pillar, a professor of security studies at Georgetown University.
While the paper's key finding may seem obvious to some, Pillar said it refutes a commonly held view that terrorism arises solely from the extremist views of the terrorists themselves.
Instead, the larger population in a terrorist's home country may play a role, perhaps by providing an encouraging environment - and thus a measure of legitimacy - for any violent actions, he said.
The research was based on public opinion surveys in 19 Middle Eastern and African nations, conducted by the Gallup World Poll. People in those countries were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the leadership in nine world powers: the U.S., the United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, China and India.
Leadership in the U.S. and the U.K. had the highest average disapproval rating, at 71 percent for both. Japan was lowest at 41 percent.
The highest disapproval rate toward the U.S. was found in Cyprus (92 percent). Saudi Arabia was close behind at 88 percent. The polls were taken in 2006 and 2007; data on 111 terrorist attacks came from 2004 to 2008.
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