Monday, April 21, 2014
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Poll: Hillary Clinton has historic edge for Democratic presidential nomination

Hillary Clinton speaking to an international women´s conference at Bryn Mawr College in July 2013. ( APRIL SAUL / Staff Photographer)
Hillary Clinton speaking to an international women's conference at Bryn Mawr College in July 2013. ( APRIL SAUL / Staff Photographer)

If Democrats were voting today for their presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton would crush the competition by historic margins, according to a new poll.

The numbers:

Clinton, 73 percent.

Vice President Joe Biden, 12 percent.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 8 percent.

That result is not only unprecedented, it’s “eye-popping,” according to the Washington Post, which co-sponsored the poll with ABC News.

Some might say that it’s also startling to suggest such a poll is more than a snapshot ... on SnapChat.

The first caucuses and primaries are two years away.

The Democrats don’t even have a declared candidate yet.

In December 2006, the Post points out, Clinton was a 39 percent to 17 percent frontrunner over some upstart named Barack Obama. Mario Cuomo led the poll in December 1991. And Gary Hart was on top in 1986, according to the Post.

The 1999 poll proved prophetic, though, setting the previous record with Vice President Al Gore ahead by 37 points.

“For most voters, 2016 is in other galaxy, and they won’t really start paying attention until the conventions kick off the fall 2016 campaign,” writes Jonathan Bernstein, who covers politics for Bloomberg View.

Bernstein, though, has much less of a problem with party popularity polls than with projecting some hypothetical nominee head-to-head like Clinton vs. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, which favors Clinton at the moment, 53 percent to 41 percent, according to the Post/ABC poll.

The Republican side showed much more of a race, with Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin leading with 20 percent, followed by former Florida governor Jeb Bush, 18 percent; Christie, 13 percent (down from previous polls); and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Kentucky’s Rand Paul, and Florida’s Marco Rubio, all with 12 percent.

Contact staff writer Peter Mucha at 215-854-4342 or pmucha@phillynews.com.

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