Skip to content
News
Link copied to clipboard

'Hurricane' Schwartz: Snow system 'a big, disorganized mess'

In a way, the upcoming system is the opposite of our recent blizzard and the current one hitting parts of New England. They were big, but well-organized storms that even a second grader could see on satellite pictures. Those types of storms are usually easier to predict, and snowfall is more evenly spread across the area.

But not this one. As I said on-air this morning, it's a big, disorganized mess. Take a look for yourself.

And this shows just the first half of the storm. It stretches all the way westward to Nebraska, southward to Alabama, and northward into Canada.

The leading edge of the storm is the best organized at the moment, and it is due to move into our area tonight. But there are still questions about how heavy the snow will be and how much of it will melt as it falls.

The computer models

There is a general agreement among the computer models that some snow falls, but most show up to a few inches. The snowiest model has been the American model (GFS), and it was pretty consistent. But that is no longer the case. It still shows enough snow to shovel or plow, depending on where you live. The Canadian model now is the snowiest. And the overall best model, the European, shows the least, and has been consistent about that. Another U.S. model, the NAM, is more of a compromise. It shows a small area of low pressure developing near our coast, and it's just cold enough for a small but significant area of snow:

At the time of the map (7 p.m. Tuesday), snow would be falling from Philadelphia northward, with rain to the south and east. But as the low moves offshore, that rain should change to snow.

Temperatures will be marginal, not only for snow to fall, but regarding whether it will stick or melt on roads. Untreated surfaces may get slippery when the snow is heaviest or Tuesday night, when it's colder. When the snow is light, it will mainly melt.

This is the type of storm that can result in narrow bands of heavy snow at times. In cases like this, big differences in snow totals can occur over just a few miles. This is what makes these types of storms especially tricky.

We'll have our updated snow forecast maps later today.

Coastal flooding

Moderate coastal flooding occurred this morning in parts of the Jersey Shore, and more is coming. The new moon adds to whatever the storm is doing, making it easier to flood. The huge ocean storm that just missed us this morning caused the seas to rise so much and so fast that it led to the coastal flooding. The wind is diminishing, but is still onshore. There will be some flooding again at the next high tide (7 to 8 p.m. Monday), but not as bad as this morning. The next high tide (7:30 to 8:30 a.m. Tuesday) may cause moderate flooding again. Those times are for the ocean side. Back bays peak an hour or two later.

Don't forget the Arctic blast

While the snow amounts are not huge, the Arctic blast that will follow later in the week will be a big one. Temperatures over the weekend may not get above 25, with lows in the single digits, and wind chills below zero possible at times. It won't stay that cold very long, but it's likely to be the coldest weekend of the winter.