Bolaris: Where are the hurricanes?

Arthur has been the only hurricane to strike land this season as it quickly cut through eastern North Carolina in July as a category 2 before buzzing well of the New Jersey coast in what's been a quiet season.

But are models suggesting an October hurricane strike?

Some background: The first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic, Edouard, struck this week, packing winds of 115 mph, as a category 3 (winds of 111 mph – 129 mph are categorized as Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.). Edouard, however, never struck land and spun harmlessly out to sea.

If you look at weather computer models 24/7, like I do, you tend to see and observe any wrinkle in the atmosphere. This summer there was little activity and was relatively quiet with the exception of some big-time, severe thunderstorms. Additionally, there was no real true heat wave worth mentioning.

September also has been quiet, meaning plenty of golden sunshine and pleasant temperatures. It's almost always the nicest month of the year.

However, as I start to look into the long-range computer models for the start of October, an ominous swirling mass of energy, better known as a storm, or in this case a potential hurricane, is being generated in the Gulf of Mexico. Normally, I would not think too much of this, as computer models, in particular the GFS forecasting model, have a long-range tendency to blow these storms up.

The European model indicates storm development in the southern Gulf of Mexico, but not nearly as intense.

The GFS has a full-blown, perhaps major, hurricane slamming into the central Gulf states with flooding rains spreading across the Tennessee valley and into Philly for the first week of October.

Obviously this is just long-range computer conjecture. At this stage, the probability of this taking place is low. I will know more with each passing computer run, and if the signs remain the same by next week, trepidation could fill the air.