Thursday, November 26, 2015

Bolaris: Snow this weekend? Probably. Mega-storm? No.

So, no, there are no signs of a break in this vicious winter.

However, we will — thank goodness — miss a mega-storm this weekend, which should help in the recovery process of restoring power to many homes still in the dark.
Over the upcoming weekend, a storm system well off the coast, combined with energy racing across the upper Ohio Valley, could produce a period of snow showers from Saturday night into Sunday morning. The region is should expect light accumulation, from a possible coating in most places and up an inch or two. The most likely areas to see accumulation is coastal Cape May County, N.J., and Central and Southern Delaware.
After snow subsides early Sunday, the rest of the day will be windy and cold. Earlier in the weekend, starting Friday, temperatures will be hard pressed to crack the freezing mark.

We will stay essentially storm-free right through Tuesday of next week, which is definitely some much-needed good news. However, computer models are starting to converge on the potential of a coastal storm sometime Wednesday or Thursday next week.
It looks like it could be a wintry mix of accumulating snow, sleet and the dreaded "freezing rain" phrase, along with just plain rain.

It is shaping up to be a very complex type of storm, with energy that ejects out of the southwestern United States, then tracks east and reforms in the Gulf of Mexico, before heading toward the mid-Atlantic Coast. From there, the exact track will depend on how the mix of snow, ice and rain sets up.

As you may have noticed, the computer models have been having a tough time handling timing issues, placement and intensity of storms so far this winter.

But there are two reasons for this column:

  • I want to make sure we are clear about this weekends forecast: There is no big storm forecast. Folks don't need that anxiety with so many homes still without power.
  • This is the earliest so far this winter season that computer models some five or six days out are converging on the same basic solution. So my level of storm threat for the middle of next week is raised to the moderate level — 50 to 60 percent — and that is on the higher side for this early in the forecast period.

I will continue to monitor these systems and update the forecast throughout the weekend.

Also on
letter icon Newsletter