Bolaris: Intense nor'easter on way

The storm that's on its way has been an extremely difficult one to forecast.  It's what we call a "bomb" - better known as bombogenesis (a rapidly intensifying storm).  The 'bomb' will drop some place off the New Jersey coast by late tonight.

The big question that still lingers is exactly where that process will take place. A difference of 50-70 miles will make a huge difference in forecasting the amount of snow.

A storm that formed along the North Carolina coast is moving into our area today.  It will slow as it  intensifyies off the New Jersey coast late tonight. It's pretty certain that the storm's bulls-eye will strike Long Island to Boston with intense snow rates of 2-4 inches and total amounts of 20-36 inches. It looks like could be an extreme impact blizzard of possible historical proportions for some.

New York City and northeast New Jersey, including the counties of Ocean, Monmouth and Middlesex, are in the high to extreme impact zone, but some uncertainties still exist there as to the exact impact in those areas. Major to severe tidal flooding will compound problems from Long Island through southeast New England.

The Philadelphia region is on the cusp of the very heavy snow. My thinking is still that the heaviest of the snow will be outside of the city, more northeastward up the pike well northeast of Trenton. This storm will have a very sharp cut-off line to who gets the very heavy snow to those who get significant snow.  Know that the more you head southwest of the city the less snow you will receive.

To put it more simply the city should receive 6 to 10 inches of snow by the time this storm winds down Tuesday afternoon.  That is certainly major, but not as much as in some reports calling for 1-3 feet, which would be paralyzing.

The timing:

Precipitation was light this morning and into afternoon, with a few suburbs to the north and west of town picking up around an inch with the first mini-wave of precipitation. Snow will pick up again and its steadiness will start to accumulate.

We should see snow during the evening rush with 1 to 3 inches by 7 p.m.

-7 p.m. - Midnight: Steady snow, especially across New Jersey.

-1 a.m. - 8 a.m. Tuesday: Brunt of heaviest snow.  The winds will increase, meaning blowing and drifting of snow as well as greatly reduced visibility.

-9 a.m. - noon Tuesday: Any heavier snow bands will continue to shift north and east across Central and Northeast New Jersey (Ocean and Monmouth could see blizzard conditions).

-Noon - 7 p.m.: Windy with wrap-around snows. But the intensity and what to expect as it progresses into Philly is still uncertain. Blowing and drifting will occur.

-Expect moderate tidal flooding for the Southern New Jersey shore line and major tidal flooding in Northern New Jersey.