Blizzard warning: 'Dangerous ... life-threatening' storm on way

Invoking language usually reserved for the likes of tsunamis and deadly tornadoes, the National Weather Service warned Monday that a "dangerous," "life-threatening," and potentially historic snowstorm was imminent.

But of all the calls that flooded into the Mount Holly Weather Service office, far and away the most asked was a basic one:

How much? How much?

"That's all they ask about," said Joe Miketta, interim chief of an office whose forecasts cover a region with more than 11 million people, from the Delmarva Peninsula to the northwest New Jersey hills.

In this case, snow accumulations might end up the toughest question to answer, but the consensus was anywhere from an inch or less at the Shore to 10 in the city and  20 farther north and west. The wild card would be how much sleet mixes in and holds down snow accumulation.

What meteorologists were saying with almost unwavering confidence was that by the time the storm winds down late Tuesday, it will rank among the most disruptive late-winter storms since record-keeping started in the 19th century, up there with the Blizzard of 1993 and the Equinox Storm of 1958, still among the top 10 weather events for power outages.

All Philadelphia schools closed pre-emptively and states of emergency were ubiquitous. Govs. Christie and Wolf asked New Jerseyans and Pennsylvanians to stay off the roads.  SEPTA announced that it was opting for a Saturday schedule.

"Tuesday would be a good day to stay home," Wolf said. (Feel free to share that comment with your boss.)

A rare blizzard warning was posted for Bucks, Chester, and Montgomery Counties until 6 p.m. Tuesday. The weather service said that snowfall could reach four inches an hour and that residents should consider a "shelter in place" option between 2 a.m. and 2 p.m.

For most people, that likely would be their home.

"I hope you like the people you're with at 2 a.m.," said Walt Drag, a veteran forecaster, who also is the Mount Holly office's marine specialist, "because you won't be going anywhere for a while."

The storm is forecast to become an explosive nor'easter, so-called because of the powerful winds coastal cyclones generate from the north and northeast. A coastal flood warning was in effect at the Jersey Shore for moderate flooding from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. In addition, a high-wind warning was in effect, with possible gusts past 60 mph.

Inland, the winds were not expected to be quite as strong, but they could reach blizzard levels, and the combination of heavy snow and 40-mph gusts could result in widespread power outages, officials said. Utility companies said they would have extra personnel on hand to respond to outages.

The late March sun, usually an effective snow repellent, will not be much help. By the time it comes up, it won't be able to get to snow-and-ice-layered roads.

"The expectation is that all roads, at that kind of intensity, will be snow-covered, even with all the plows out there and running," said Tony Goreski, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation's maintenance manager for the Philadelphia region.

State highway departments will deploy their snow-fighting armadas, roads throughout the region on Monday were heavily brined, and highway signs warned of the impending storm.

"Drivers therefore must be prepared to face poor visibility, slick roads, and ... crazy road conditions," Goreski said.

Snowstorms of such ferocity are rare in the waning days of winter, and  the region has not had snowfall of a foot this late in the season in a generation.

The March 13, 1993, "Storm of the Century" was classified as a true blizzard, defined as having frequent winds of 35 mph or visibilities a  quarter-mile or less for a minimum of three hours

That blizzard was one of the most dramatic events  in Philadelphia's weather history and along the entire Eastern seaboard.

After a foot of heavy snow, the city experienced three hours of stinging sleet, winds gusting past 65 mph, and then a hard freeze that locked in a dense ice and snow cover for days, transforming the region into what a meteorologist called an "Arctic landscape."

The Great Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962 was a disaster at the Shore, but not an epic snowmaker in Philadelphia, unlike the three-day Equinox Storm of March 1958.

A nor'easter pummeled the region with heavy, wet snow starting on March 19, a Wednesday, and continuing into the 21st. Heavy snow began that Wednesday afternoon, but the bulk evidently came early in the morning.

The temperature never got below freezing during the storm, but the heaviest snowfall came after dark, and snow piled up on streets.

Officially, Philadelphia recorded 11.4 inches in the '58 storm, and a shocking 50 inches was measured in Morgantown, Chester County.  The Equinox storm, even unadjusted for population, remains in Peco's top 10 for power outages.

One other thing is certain: The coming storm will be followed by dead-of-winter temperatures, making this one of the coldest St. Patrick's weeks – the March 11-17 period – in a 144-year period of record.

"It's a nasty storm," Drag said. "It's not the end of the world."