Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

Bolaris: Snow heavy to nothing, depends where you live

NOAA´s 6-10 day precipitation outlook predicts a 50-60 percent probability for above-normal precipitation. (NOAA)
NOAA's 6-10 day precipitation outlook predicts a 50-60 percent probability for above-normal precipitation. (NOAA)

Another March storm is heading our way and like the storm of two weeks ago, it will feature a very sharp cut-off from who gets the heavy snow and others who get zilch.

And similar to the last storm, Philadelphia sits on the fence between significant accumulations 4 inches-plus and lighter accumulations of under 3 inches.

Computer models should be used for guidance not solutions but when they waffle significantly the solution becomes tougher to come by. Since it is the ninth inning, I will bring in the closer (European model) which has been the most consistent, team it up with the Canadian model and add about 20 percent of the North American model. Of course the high resolution models which can only be used just prior and during the storm for forecasting potential snow amounts. These high resolute models did not perform well with the last storm, but overall have a pretty good track record. I'm throwing out the Global model as it continues to have problems with this storm.

By blending all the models, the overall axis of more significant snow has shifted slightly westward. This means Philadelphia will be split, with Northeast Philly in the 1-3 inch range, Center City 2-3 inches and South Philly 2-4 inches.

This means the 4 inch-plus line should remain about 30 miles south and east of Philly across southern New Jersey and most of Delaware.

The maximum bullseye for snow remains for Cape May County of New Jersey and central and southern Delaware from Dover points south. Six plus-inches is likely in these areas.

Once you get north of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, only light snow will fall with most locations under 2 inches. The Lehigh Valley and the Poconos will see nothing more than a coating.

Philadelphia so far this winter has picked up 62.9 inches of snow, making it the third snowiest winter of all time. If we pick up another 2.7 inches with this upcoming storm we will move into second place. The snowiest winter of all time was 2010 when we were crushed with 78.7 inches.

Timing

Most snow falls between midnight and 6 a.m. But accumulating snow continues through morning commute in southern New Jersey and most of Delaware.

6am-noon Monday: Light snow.

After 1 p.m. any snow moves away, except coastal sections.

Snow amounts by noon Monday

PENNSYLVANIA

Northeast Philly: 1-2 inches

Center City: 2-3 inches

South Philly: 2-4 inches.

Eastern Montgomery County: 2-3 inches

Western Montgomery: 1 inch

Southeastern Chester County: 3 inches

Northwest Chester County: 1 inch

Lower Bucks County: 1-3 inches

Upper Bucks County: 1 inch

Delaware County: 2-3 inches

Lehigh Valley and Poconos: Zilch

NEW JERSEY

Western Camden County: 2-3 inches

Eastern Camden County: 3-5 inches

Burlington County: 2-5 inches

Gloucester County: 2-5 inches

Salem County: 3-5 inches

Cumberland County: 3-5 inches

Ocean County 3-5 inches

Atlantic County: 3-5 inches

Cape May County: 4-8 inches

Mercer County: 1-2 inches

DELAWARE

Northern New Castle County: 2-4 inches

Southern New Castle County: 3-5 inches

Kent County: 4-8 inches

Sussex County: 8-10 inches

John Bolaris

John Bolaris For Philly.com
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