Santorum and Huckabee, past winners, lag in Iowa
MARSHALLTOWN, Iowa - Once they were winners. Now, in some respects, they are the forgotten men. The winners of the last two Iowa Republican caucuses - Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008 - are running again this year. They soldier on, visiting evangelical churches, Pizza Ranches, coffee shops, senior centers and house parties, though the polling numbers suggest they are long shots.
MARSHALLTOWN, Iowa - Once they were winners. Now, in some respects, they are the forgotten men.
The winners of the last two Iowa Republican caucuses - Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008 - are running again this year. They soldier on, visiting evangelical churches, Pizza Ranches, coffee shops, senior centers and house parties, though the polling numbers suggest they are long shots.
Even for an electoral process with its share of quirks, no past winners have ever faced off like this.
Each man was the first choice of 2 percent of those likely to attend Monday's Republican caucuses, according to the Iowa Poll, sponsored by Bloomberg Politics/The Des Moines Register and released Saturday. Compared to the same survey earlier this month, those numbers represent an uptick of a percentage point for Santorum, the former Pennsylvania U.S. senator, and a decline of one percentage point for Huckabee, a Baptist preacher who was governor of Arkansas.
Santorum insists he still has a chance, and he blasts the media for trying to pronounce the death of his campaign before any votes are cast. After all, he said in a recent visit to a nondenominational evangelical church in this central Iowa city, polling showed that 32 percent of the people who voted for him in the 2012 caucuses decided on the last day.
"Don't let the national media, don't let the establishment who's providing the money, decide who you should choose," Santorum said. "Who cares what the numbers are in the poll? Your job is not to settle. Your job is to pick the right person and recommend to the rest of the country who the best person is who should be president."
At the Marshalltown Senior Citizens Center on a recent day, Huckabee also sounded upbeat, citing the propensity of caucus goers to change their minds, even at the last minute. Yet he acknowledged he'll be re-evaluating post Iowa.
"I think we'll surprise people like we did eight years ago," Huckabee said. "But campaigns are fluid, and every day you evaluate where you are and do you have the juice to keep going. My future is not in my hands as much as it's in the hands of the voters of Iowa."
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has tried hard to consolidate the support of evangelicals, who made up 57 percent of caucus-goers in 2012, and polls show the strategy is working. He's got the support of U.S. Rep. Steve King (R., Iowa), a hero of social conservatives, and Bob Vader Plaats, an influential evangelical leader in Iowa.
"This is your opportunity to choose well," Vander Plaats told voters at a Cruz rally last week in Ottumwa. "It's not about voting against Sen. Santorum. It's not about voting against Gov. Huckabee." The important thing is that Cruz, with a large war chest and network of super PACs, can unite the right and stop real estate mogul Donald Trump, he said.
Vander Plaats was chairman of Huckabee's 2008 campaign, and he gave a crucial endorsement to Santorum that boosted him close to caucus time four years ago. Two of Santorum's top Iowa aides, credited with helping him overtake Mitt Romney, went with Trump, who also has sought to appeal to evangelicals.
Huckabee has been pounding way at Cruz for switches in positions, including telling elite fund-raisers at a Manhattan reception that ending same-sex marriage would not be a priority in a Cruz administration, while railing against it in Iowa. A superPAC allied with Huckabee is running TV ads that blast Cruz for not tithing to his church, based on financial disclosure forms.
On one level the explanation for Santorum and Huckabee's struggles this year is simple. "It's not that profound, but people are looking for the new thing - that's why Trump became so big," said Washington County GOP Chairman James Graham. "People remember and like Santorum and Huckabee, but they've seen and heard them before."
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