Awash in GOP options in New Hampshire

MANCHESTER, N.H. - Bryan Clickner had little opinion of Lindsey Graham until he saw the South Carolina senator at a town hall-style meeting - and decided that if Graham were elected president, the country would "be in good shape."

Clickner hadn't been particularly interested in Gov. Christie, either, but that, too, changed after watching the New Jersey governor on the town hall circuit.

Last week, Clickner awaited the arrival of the 16th Republican to enter the 2016 presidential race - Ohio Gov. John Kasich - at yet another town hall meeting, this time at Rivier University in Nashua.

"The more of these I go to, the less I'm leaning" toward any one candidate, said Clickner, 58, a lawyer from Goffstown, N.H.

Every four years, New Hampshire voters vet, question, and cull the ranks of presidential candidates through the first-in-the-nation primary. While the top finisher hasn't always gone on to become the party's nominee, New Hampshire's Republican primary - in which voters who aren't affiliated with a party can also vote - has a better track record of picking the eventual GOP candidate than the more conservative Iowa caucuses.

But this election, winnowing the field may prove a greater challenge in the Granite State. Not only must voters sort through a horde of candidates, but thanks to recent loosening of campaign-finance laws, even the longest of long shots can likely rely on big-money donors to keep them afloat after early primary defeats.

In a typical election, "after Iowa, the primary conservative candidate is clear. After New Hampshire, the middle-of-the-road mainstream candidate is identified," said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and coauthor of a new book on the history of the New Hampshire primary.

This time, however, "New Hampshire may not be able to clear out the moderate candidates, because there are so many," Smith said. Among them is Christie, who has made more stops in the state than any other candidate, according to New England Cable News. The New Jersey governor will return to New Hampshire on Monday, with events announced through Wednesday.

With such a packed field, political observers think a candidate could win New Hampshire with just 25 percent of the vote - maybe less if Donald Trump continues to siphon off votes - followed by a slew of runners-up clustered only percentage points apart.

Tom Rath, a GOP strategist in New Hampshire who has advised the campaigns of Mitt Romney and George W. Bush, said a primary pileup could "enable a conservative candidate more than New Hampshire usually does," which wouldn't be good news for Christie.

In one scenario, for example, if Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker wins the Iowa caucuses, the momentum could propel him to the top slot in New Hampshire - complicating the path for more centrist Republicans who "can't wait forever to prove they're viable," Rath said.

Candidates left on the fringe may not necessarily drop out, though, thanks to super PACs and outside groups permitted to raise unlimited sums.

"More candidates than usual will survive New Hampshire this time," said Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican Party chairman. But he and others said those who finish lower in the pack may struggle moving forward to make a case for their candidacies.

For Christie, a strong showing in New Hampshire appears essential. His super PAC started to advertise here last week with a $1.1 million television and digital buy and has reserved $2.8 million more in time between Nov. 16 and the February primary.

Last week, some voters bemoaned the role that national television debates may play in winnowing the field.

"I am thinking of boycotting Fox," said Terry Negron, 58, of Nashua, referring to the network's decision to limit the field for its Aug. 6 debate to the 10 candidates ranked highest in an average of five national polls.

Negron, who was among the about 125 people gathered Tuesday to hear Kasich speak at Rivier University, noted how many had come "to learn about a guy who's polling at 1 percent."

Kasich was the 12th candidate seen this election cycle by retirees Lynn and David Schur of Hollis. "Or number 13," said David Schur, a camera around his neck.

The couple like to see candidates to gauge the merits of each without "the media spin," Lynn Schur said. Still, with so many in the race, she said, "it's a little overwhelming."

Inside MaryAnn's Diner in Derry, a popular stump stop, several breakfast patrons expressed frustration Wednesday with the size of Republican field.

Ray McCarty, 64, of Londonderry, welcomed Trump's presence into what he described as an otherwise "very vanilla" race. "It's almost like his TV show. He's really running the presidential campaign," said McCarty, sitting at the diner's counter.

An NBC/Marist poll released Sunday found Trump in first place, at 21 percent, among potential New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was second with 14 percent.

Though McCarty favors Walker, he ranks Trump highly when he gets survey calls from pollsters "because I want Trump in the debates. Immigration has to be the number one issue out there."

Some voters said the crowded field would sort itself out. "I don't know why people make a big deal about that. Who cares?" said Dave Bickford, 63, of Rye, at another Kasich town hall meeting last week. "On the other side, you've got the anointed one," he said, referring to Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, "which is a big joke."

Wayne Slaughter, 65, said he would "dread a Bush vs. Clinton" election. But after attending a Bush event Wednesday in Manchester, Slaughter had to "admit I'm a little impressed" by the former Florida governor.

Add Bush to his list, maybe. "A whole lot of them should be dropping out," he said, though he wasn't sure when that might happen. "It's going to be an awfully long ballot, isn't it?"

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