More babies! More people in Philly!
New census estimates show that citys increase in population is driven by births.
BABIES ARE fueling an increase in the city's population, according to new estimates released today by the Census Bureau.
From the April 2010 census to July 1, 2013, Philadelphia's population increased by an estimated 27,159 people, which represents a 1.8 percent jump.
Much of that was due to net births - births minus deaths.
The city also got a boost from immigration. An estimated 23,000 more people came to the city from out of the country in those three years than city residents who left the country.
But that increase was basically canceled out by the city's net domestic migration.
The estimates show that about 23,000 more people left the city to move to other parts of the U.S. in those three years compared to people who moved from another county into Philadelphia.
"The way that cities grow is with replacement population," said Domenic Vitiello, an assistant professor of city and regional planning at the University of Pennsylvania.
Vitiello said he believes the spike in births comes from two groups. One is recent immigrants from Latin America and Asia. "The second generation being born is helping us continue to grow in the city," he said.
The second group is "younger, reasonably affluent and mostly white and Asian-American folks" who live in and around Center City, he said.
The census estimates indicate that there were about 28,000 more births than deaths from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2013.
"Births have generally increased over the last 10 years, while the number of deaths has generally decreased" in the city, Giridhar Mallya, director of policy and planning for the Philadelphia Department of Public Health, said in an email.
Looking at the one-year change from July 1, 2012, to July 1, 2013, the census estimates show that the city grew in population by about 4,500 people. Again, the spike was primarily due to births.
During the one-year time period, the data depict that while there was a net increase of about 7,500 people who came to the city from abroad, there was a net decrease of about 10,500 people who left the city to live in another part of the U.S.
"It makes sense that people always leave cities," Vitiello said. "Certainly our schools crisis is acute, but it's certainly not new."
With regard to the increase in the city's net international migration, Vitiello attributed "a substantial portion of that" to international students who come to attend Penn, Drexel, Temple, Thomas Jefferson University and other schools.
The new estimates are projections based on birth and death records, as well as migration data based on recent American Community Survey results, federal tax returns, group-housing data such as prisons and dorms, and other data sources.
Until the 2010 census, the city had lost population in every decade since 1950.