The Corbett replacement buzz is gone

ONE MONTH AFTER national buzz suggesting that Pennsylvania Republicans may be replacing Gov. Corbett as the party nominee in 2014, such noise is subsiding.

Maybe it's summer slumber. Maybe the scheme's gone subterranean.

Whatever the reason, chatter building since April has gone silent here in August.

To review.

In April, the New York Times called Corbett the nation's fifth-most-vulnerable governor.

In May, Politico suggested he was the most vulnerable, noting a slew of Democrats lining up to run against him.

In June, national pundit Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" called Corbett the governor "likeliest to lose if he makes it to November 2014."

And in July, the National Journal wrote that talk of the GOP replacing Corbett was "rampant."

Now? Crickets.

Not that stuff got better for Corbett.

He lost all three of his top legislative items, almost meekly accepting same after calling 0-for-3 "unacceptable."

He lost his sixth Cabinet member, most from major departments such as Education, Public Welfare, Health and Environmental Protection.

This was after losing his lawsuit against NCAA Penn State sanctions, losing his effort to privatize the lottery, consistently dismal polling numbers and no evident awareness that unless things change he would indeed be "one-term Tom."

Yet here we are. All quiet on the GOP's get-a-better-candidate front.

Most of this is due to recent developments.

Corbett got a new chief of staff, Leslie Gromis-Baker, who started Aug. 1.

She's a respected insider and former campaign manager/fundraiser for Gov. Tom Ridge and worked national GOP campaigns.

Neither of her predecessors, Bill Ward nor Steve Aichele, was known for either a firm grasp of state politics or the internecine workings of the Legislature.

Her arrival won widespread praise from top Republicans.

Corbett got a new legislative director, former 16-year Lancaster County state Rep. Katie True. She knows the process and has a strong record on child and family issues, which could serve Corbett well.

And it was just announced that Kevin Harley - Corbett's longtime press secretary, director of communications and adviser - is out.

No one took more heat for Corbett's lousy public image than Harley. He had a rocky relationship with the media. He was famous for "Harley ever responding" to press queries (get it? "hardly" ever). And he seemed unwilling or unable to engage in aggressive offense or defense on behalf of his boss.

Party elders repeatedly suggested that Harley be replaced. That he will be sends a message that a new public approach is coming. A successor is expected to be named by week's end.

State Republican Party Chairman Rob Gleason says some disgruntled Republicans might have talked privately about the guv not running, but there never was a replacement effort.

"Nobody ever approached me," Gleason says, "and while there was concern about his polls, nobody ever suggested he can't do the job."

Gleason and Corbett campaign manager Mike Barley contend that Corbett has done as promised: He has cut spending and avoided raising taxes, an attractive message in much of the state.

They also argue that Democrats have no statewide star (assuming Attorney General Kathleen Kane doesn't run) and that Corbett will spend $30 million to $40 million on re-election.

Gleason also says national Republicans will pour in resources since Pennsylvania is a large electoral-vote state, and the GOP wants a Republican governor here during the 2016 presidential campaign.

One sign of such synergy? Corbett is scheduled to speak at the Republican National Committee summer meeting in Boston tomorrow evening.

None of this is to suggest Corbett's re-election is secure.

He's the candidate, not his staff. Changing staff is one thing. Changing public views of performance and leadership skills is something else.

Many factors will influence next year's election. The Democratic candidate, off-year turnout and the state's economy are chief among them.

But it appears the question about Corbett is changed - from "can he run again?" to "can he win again?"