Mayor Nutter is likely to face a primary foe

Mayor Nutter looks more and more likely to face a primary challenge next spring.

Chatter is growing that former Republican mayoral candidate Sam Katz is seriously considering running in the Democratic primary - a move that former Mayor John Street has been egging on.

Now it appears that if Katz doesn't get into the race, millionaire businessman Tom Knox, who finished second to Nutter in the five-way 2007 Democratic primary, would be happy to take his spot.

"I think somebody ought to run against Michael," said Knox, who hopes to meet with Katz this week to talk about the election. "I don't think he needs a free pass. Either Sam or I will run against him. I'm sure of it."

Nutter could face a primary challenge because 2 1/2 years into his first term, he seems vulnerable - weakened by economic distress, budget cuts and political missteps. Still, as a sitting mayor in a Democratic town, and with at least $1.3 million in the bank, Nutter would be hard to beat.

"I think he's an incumbent Democratic mayor, he's going to have the support of the Democratic Party and he's going to be tough to beat regardless of how much media criticism there might be or grousing there might be," said Zack Stalberg, president of the Committee of Seventy, the political watchdog group.

Proving that the Democratic establishment knows something is up, U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah yesterday urged the crowd at a political event in West Philadelphia to stick with Nutter.

"He's been mayor in a difficult time, but he has stood tall, fighting for the things that matter for our community," Fattah told the 500 people gathered for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato. "So I want you to know that even though there's some talk about an election in the near future, I'm going to be standing with Mayor Michael Nutter and I'm asking all of us to stand together with our mayor."

Nutter, after the event, said that his focus was on the job, not politics.

"We'll see what happens," Nutter said. "I'm very focused on just trying to do the best job I can running the city and doing my job. We'll let the election take care of itself."

Katz, who ran for mayor as a Republican in 1991, 1999 and 2003, declined to comment for this story. But Street, who beat Katz in 1999 and 2003, said that a challenger to Nutter could stand a real chance.

The former mayor said that he has told Katz: "I think it's going to be a wide-open race. I said I don't think Mayor Nutter has done enough for this community and a couple constituencies that his re-election is inevitable."

Street said that he had also talked with Knox, along with several others interested in the race, whom he declined to name. He did not commit to campaigning or fundraising for Katz or Knox.

Street - who has long had a contentious relationship with Nutter - said that an opponent to Nutter could tap into apparent dissatisfaction in the city's African-American neighborhoods, as well as the business community.

"[Business leaders] all complain about having wasted a financial crisis," Street said. "I've got lots of constituents in the African-American community and they're whining and griping everywhere."

Nutter adviser Richard Hayden vigorously disputed those claims. He noted that Nutter had avoided any increases to the wage or business taxes despite economic decline, and that he had worked to maintain city services and reduce crime rates.

Hayden also stressed that Nutter enjoys diverse support throughout the city.

"The format for his primary victory in 2007 still holds based on our research," Hayden said. "Nutter enjoys strong support across neighborhoods, racial and economic lines. It's been consistent throughout his time as mayor."

Given the power of incumbency in Philadelphia, a successful challenger to a sitting mayor would need substantial financing. At the end of 2009, Nutter had $1.3 million in his war chest.

Knox, who self-funded his $12 million campaign in 2007, says he's prepared to put up as much money as Nutter does. But Katz presumably would have to do fundraising, which would be harder than his previous campaigns because of the city's campaign-finance rules that went into effect for the 2007 race.

Under the city law, individuals can donate a maximum of $2,600 to a candidate annually and political committees can contribute just $10,600 a year.