Expect Favre under center, maybe in AFC

Question: How will the whole Brett Favre thing play out? Will he play this season? And will it be for the Packers or somebody else?

Answer: It's possible Favre could do another about-face and decide to stay retired, but that seems unlikely. He has made it clear he wants to play again. If not for the Packers, then another team. Packers general manager Ted Thompson, who seems to be in a hurry to kick-start the Aaron Rodgers era, even though there still isn't tangible evidence that the guy can play, has said Favre can come back as Rodgers' backup, which is his not-so-subtle way of saying, "Stay the hell in Mississippi and leave us alone." If Favre calls Thompson's bluff and shows up at training camp in 10 days, it could get ugly in Green Bay. Favre has asked the Packers to release him if they don't want him back. But that won't happen, because then he'd be able to sign with any quarterback-needy team in the league, including the two in the Packers' divisional backyard, the Bears and Vikings. The most likely scenario is a trade to a team outside the NFC North, preferably an AFC team.

Q: Why the heck don't the Packers want Favre back? I know he's almost 39, but he had a terrific season last year and helped get them to the NFC Championship Game. Doesn't Favre give them a better chance to win in '08 than untested Aaron Rodgers?

A: Despite Favre's contention that the Packers pressured him into making his March retirement announcement, the bottom line is he was the one who made the decision. The Packers took him at his word and moved on. They spent the spring getting Rodgers ready to be their quarterback, and now, on the eve of training camp, here comes Favre informing them that he still wants to play. I understand why Thompson is eager to see whether Rodgers can play. The clock is ticking on the '05 first-round pick. He is entering the fourth year of the 5-year deal he signed as a rookie and can become an unrestricted free agent after the '09 season. So, the Packers need to get a look at him and figure out if he's The Guy. My sense is, though, that even if he isn't, Thompson feels the Packers have enough talent at other positions, particularly on defense, to win with him.

Q: OK, so if the Packers decide to trade Favre, what are his most likely landing spots?

A: Don't expect there to be a line around the block for Favre's services. It's one thing to be bringing in a guy this late in the game to be a backup. It's quite another to be bringing him in to be your starter. It pretty much eliminates any team that doesn't play an offensive system similar to the Packers (the West Coast). You also can rule out rebuilding teams that wouldn't have much use for a 1-year quarterback rental, even if the rental is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Best guess right now is Tampa Bay. The Bucs play the West Coast offense. They won nine games last season, so they think they're not far away. And they're getting tired of listening to Jeff Garcia complain about his contract situation. The one negative from the Packers' perspective about sending Favre to Tampa Bay: They play the Bucs in Week 4, though it's in Tampa and not in Lambeau.

Q: What's up with Bengals wide receiver Chad Johnson? He has done everything but set owner Mike Brown's house on fire to try to get the team to trade him. Will they get rid of this mega-distraction?

A: Coach Marvin Lewis has said repeatedly that the Bengals have no intention of trading Ocho Cinco, no matter how many times he holds his breath until he turns blue. Initially, I thought they'd eventually back down and get rid of him. Now, I believe them. And apparently, so does Johnson, who has toned down his act in recent weeks. Johnson had arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle in mid-June, but is expected to be fine by the start of training camp. Johnson's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said recently that his client will honor his contract. Interestingly, Lewis has added Charles Collins, who was Johnson's position coach at Santa Monica Junior College, to his staff as a summer intern. I guess he's there in case Johnson pulls a T.O. and refuses to talk to the rest of the coaches.

Q: Do you think the Giants have a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions?

A: It would be tempting to say yes, if only to avoid dozens of wonderful, you're-a-freaking-idiot e-mails from Giants fans. Do they have a chance? Sure, they have a chance. This is the parity-driven NFL, where every team not owned by Al Davis or Bill Bidwill or Denise York or Dan Snyder has a chance to capture the grand prize each year. Even with the retirement of Michael Strahan, the Giants head into '08 with 10-plus-win talent, particularly if Eli Manning picks up where he left off last season. But they didn't win last year because they were the best team. They won because they were the hottest team at exactly the right time. They caught lightning in a bottle in late December, and that usually doesn't happen to a team 2 years in a row. While I have great respect for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the Giants' pass rush just won't be as fierce without Strahan coming off the left side.

Q: OK, Mr. Know-It-All, then tell us, right here, right now, who will be in Super Bowl XLIII next February?

A: Well, I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind between now and the start of the season, depending on what happens in August. Right now, my top four AFC candidates are the Colts, Patriots, Chargers and Jaguars. My top four NFC possibilities are the Cowboys, Eagles, Packers and, surprise, surprise, the Vikings. Make me pick two now and I'll say the Chargers and Cowboys.

The Cowboys? Despite winning 13 regular-season games last year, they couldn't beat the Giants in the playoffs and haven't won a postseason game since 1996. Why will this year be any different?

Maybe it won't be, I don't know. They will have their work cut out for them just trying to survive the rough waters of the league's toughest division. But they've improved their secondary with the additions of cornerbacks Adam Jones and rookie first-rounder Mike Jenkins and added an intriguing running back (first-rounder Felix Jones), who will be a terrific complement to Marion Barber. The wild card is quarterback Tony Romo, who needs to cut down on his interceptions and take his game to the next level.

Q: Why won't the Patriots make it back to the Super Bowl?

A: I'm not saying they won't. With the re-signing of Randy Moss, their offense again will be a yard-gobbling scoring machine. But they have age issues on defense. Outside linebacker Mike Vrabel will turn 33 next month. Inside linebacker Tedy Bruschi just turned 35. Strong safety Rodney Harrison is 35. And let's not forget the departure of cornerback Asante Samuel.

Q: Have we heard the last of Spygate?

A: I think so. At least until Matt Walsh comes out with his memoirs or Arlen Specter finds somebody in the NFL who will talk to him. With the league going to defensive radio helmets this season, Bill Belichick will have to find another rule to violate.

Q: Even if the league lifts Adam Jones' suspension, isn't it only a matter of time before he gets in trouble again?

A: History says yes. Since being drafted in '05, the cornerback formerly known as Pacman has been arrested six times and involved in 12 police incidents. You really have to work hard to get into that much trouble in that short a period of time. Many of his problems seem to occur in strip clubs, and Dallas is full of them. Eventually, I think he'll slip up again and blow up his career. But Cowboys owner Jerry Jones should be able to get 1 unindicted year out of him before that happens.

Q: Is Jessica Simpson hurting Tony Romo's career?

A: Not unless she's making him watch some of her god-awful movies like "The Dukes of Hazzard" and "Employee of the Month" instead of tape of the Cowboys' next opponent. I'm not big on the women-weaken-legs theory. To quote former Packers running back and noted bon vivant Paul Hornung, "When you're 24 years old, you can work out every day of your life, make love to five girls a week and play 44 games of football."

Q: What do you think of the Redskins' hiring of Jim Zorn as their new head coach?

A: Well, at least owner Dan Snyder didn't try to hire Bobby Bowden or Joe Paterno, or exhume the body of Vince Lombardi. That said, Zorn was a poor choice, especially considering how long Snyder spent shopping for Joe Gibbs' replacement. Zorn, in my opinion, is in over his head. Snyder should have gone with Gibbs' defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams. But apparently, Williams wouldn't agree to a clause in his contract requiring him to genuflect in front of the picture of Snyder in the Redskins' lobby.

Q: Which head coaches would be wise to update their resumes?

A: Any annual list of coaches on the hot seat always must include the latest poor sap working for Al Davis and the Raiders, which, in this case, is Lane Kiffin. Davis actually fired Kiffin at the end of last season, but Kiffin refused to leave. Three others in tenuous situations heading into '08 are the Panthers' John Fox, the 49ers' Mike Nolan and the Bengals' Marvin Lewis. All of them almost certainly need to make the playoffs to save their jobs. You could probably throw the Cowboys' Wade Phillips in there, too, even though he's coming off a 13-3 season. Owner Jerry Jones gave Phillips a mulligan after the Cowboys' playoff loss to the Giants last season. But Jones thinks he has assembled a Super Bowl-worthy team this year and won't tolerate another early playoff exit, especially with an obvious replacement, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, waiting in the wings.

Q: Can Jevon Kearse resuscitate his career in Tennessee and once again become a double-digit sackmeister?

A: At 31, Kearse's double-digit sack days are long gone. Aside from Kyle Vanden Bosch (12 sacks last year), the Titans don't have a lot of experienced pass-rushers, after losing Antwan Odom and Travis LaBoy to free agency. Which is why they decided to take a 2-year, $6 million flier on The Freak. But The Freak hasn't been The Freak in a long time. He has been blaming his ineffectiveness in Philadelphia on Jim Johnson's two-gap system, which is a crock. Kearse might be good for four or five sacks in Nashville as a situational pass-rusher. But his every-down Pro Bowl days are behind him.

Q: What can we expect from Chiefs running back Larry Johnson this season?

A: Well, the good news is the foot injury that sidelined him for eight games last year appears to have healed. The bad news is many of the key components of a Chiefs offensive line that helped Johnson rush for 1,750-plus yards in both '05 and '06 are gone. He's looking at the prospect of running behind an inexperienced unit that is expected to feature three first-time NFL starters, including rookie left tackle Brandon Albert, who spent all but two games of his college career as a guard. Buckle up, LJ. It's going to be a bumpy ride. *