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Thursday, September 18, 2008

How many wins do the Phillies need in their final 10 games to make the playoffs?
5
6
7
8
9
10

You might think that baseball writers are the coolest human beings in the world. You might think that when we leave the ballpark at night after filing our stories, we have to beat away all the groupies and autograph seekers who clog the press entrance at the stadium. Oh -- that's not what you think? Well, you're right. Last night, myself and three of my competitors walked out of Turner Field around midnight, waved goodbye to the night security guard, then piled into a rented Dodge Charger for the drive back to the hotel.

Now, you might think that with the rich and cultured lives we live, we'd have something to talk about besides baseball. The slumping economy, the Presidential race, the series premiere of It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia. But, surprisingly, that's not the case. So last night as we whisked through the cool Atlanta night, the topic of conversation briefly lingered on the Phillies' prospects in these last 10 games.

The question was posed: how many of these remaining games will they need to win to make the playoffs? They've won six in a row, and are a season-high 18 games over .500. But they are still only a half game ahead of the Mets, and a game ahead of the Brewers in the Wild Card should push ever come to shove (I've already put a toe tag on the Houston Astros. It was fun while it lasted, but they've got no shot).

Here are the remaining games for the three teams:

Phillies: at Atlanta, at Florida, at Florida, at Florida, vs. Atlanta, vs. Atlanta, vs. Atlanta, OFF, vs. Washington, vs. Washington, vs. Washington.

Mets: at Washington, at Atlanta, at Atlanta, at Atlanta, vs. Cubs, vs. Cubs, vs. Cubs, vs. Cubs, vs. Florida, vs. Florida, vs. Florida

Brewers: at Cubs, at Cubs, at Cincinnati, at Cincinnati, OFF, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Cubs, vs. Cubs, vs. Cubs

The Phillies obviously have the easiest schedule, by virtue of not having to play the Cubs. The Brewers still have to face the Cubbies five times, while the Mets face them four times. The Mets have the toughest road, since they don't have an off day for the rest of the season, and they finish the year against a Florida Marlins team that has nothing to lose. And the difference between a team like Florida with nothing to lose and a team like the Pirates with nothing to lose is that the Marlins are actually a halfway decent team and have the ability to beat you. And Dan Uggla has already made it perfectly clear that the Fish are drawing their motivation from raining on everybody's else's parade.

Which brings us back to the question: how many do the Phillies have to win? Frankly, I think the Marlins are a huge potential road block this weekend. I would not be surprised to see them lose two of three. I think if they win two of three, they simply need to win their final two remaining series to get in. So that would be 7-3 in the final 10 games. I still think 6-4 presents a good chance at getting into the postseason, since the odds are against both the Mets AND the Brewers going 7-3 down the stretch.

Regardless, it'll be an interesting final week-and-a-half.

^

Elsewhere. . .

J.A. Happ will get a fifth major league start on Monday.

OK, so the Phillies haven't actually announced it yet. But when you really look at the situation, there's no way he won't be on the mound when they face the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. The only other option seems to be Cole Hamels starting on short rest. And I think we all know how reluctant both parties are to do that. Charlie Manuel didn't make any announcement after the game, but did say that Happ "went up on the totem pole."

Pitching coach Rich Dubee said, "I don't see how he could (do anything) but go up."

^

Thought I'd pass this along in case anybody else needs to make travel arrangements for the playoffs. These are my approximations for the postseason schedule given a number of different scenarios.

If the Phillies win the division and the Mets win the Wild Card, they are in Los Angeles Saturday, Oct. 4 and Sun. Oct. 5 with off days bracketing the weekend.
 
If the Phillies win the Wild Card, they are in Chicago Wednesday, Oct. 1-2 with an off day Friday Oct. 3. Game five, if necesarry, is Tuesday Oct. 7 in Chicago.
 
If the Phillies win the division and the Brewers win the Wild Card, the Phillies are in Milwaukee Saturday Oct. 4, Sunday Oct. 5, with off days bracketing.
 
NLCS schedule is as follows:
 
Thu., Oct. 9 - Game 1
Fri, Oct. 10 - Game 2
Sat., Oct. 11 - OFF
Sun., Oct. 12 - Game 3
Mon, Oct. 13 - Game 4
Tue., Oct. 14 - OFF
Wed., Oct. 15 - Game 5
Thu., Oct. 16 - OFF
Fri., Oct. 17 - Game 6
Sat., Oct. 18 - Game 7

^

And, finally, one of the most heart-wrenching headlines of the day. One of the untold stories of the country's soaring gas prices is the immense burden that is now being placed on the nation's cocaine dealers. What once was a simple trip to the 7-11 parking lot across town is now a significant drain on profits, so much so that at least one dealer has instituted a $25 gas surcharge for all deliveries. Apparently, he heard that U.S. Airways was charging $2 for Coke, and he took the idea and ran with it.

Posted by David Murphy @ 5:31 PM  Permalink | 44 comments
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Comments
Posted by danielswolf 11:18 AM, 09/18/2008
6-4 should ensure at least a tie for one of the playoff spots. 7-3 pretty much locks it up. No way do both the Mets and the Brewers lose fewer than 3 games from here on out. Especially the Brewers... that would be one of the most epic turnarounds in pennant race history. From 4-12 to start the month to 8-2 to finish it out? Not gonna happen. CC and Sheets only have four more starts left between them.
Posted by alaver 11:26 AM, 09/18/2008
If we win the NL East and the Brewers win the Wild Card...why wouldnt we have home field advantage? Or am I just reading that last paragraph wrong?
Posted by jeff gross 11:28 AM, 09/18/2008
and Sheets is hurt it seems
Posted by CyHamels 11:32 AM, 09/18/2008
6 wins should do it... we SHOULD win tonight based on the very favorable pitching matchup (is it confirmed Reyes is their starter???). So, if we lose 2 of 3 to Florida we would still be in prime shape if the take 2 of 3 for each of the remaining 2 series at home. But we will win the Florida series, too, so it's a moot point. We clinch the division by next Friday
Posted by Gary Varsho 11:33 AM, 09/18/2008
Sheets has no more starts left - he's done with an elbow injury. Forget the Brewers. Mets won't go any better than .500 the rest of the way. 6-4 should lock it up. But I wouldn't mind going 10-0 - just for good measure. I agree with Murph - the Marlins worry me a little.
Posted by AllDawk_AllTheTime 11:33 AM, 09/18/2008
forgetting one thing that works against us: the Cubs will clinch soon - and all those games they play against Mets/Brewers will be meaningless - they will rest guys, especially pitchers.
Posted by Gary Varsho 11:36 AM, 09/18/2008
alaver - he was giving us the road games, not the first two games. Phils would have home field against the Brewers and Dodgers.
Posted by CyHamels 11:37 AM, 09/18/2008
Your reading it wrong... October 4 and 5 are games 3 and 4, respectively, of the NLDS. We would be home on Oct 1 and 2 if we win the Division. And Dawk, this isn't football, teams don't rest starters, especially pitchers. Pinella will want his players to keep a good rhythm and a "competitive edge" going in the playoffs. If someone else was managing that team, like someone with half a brain, I would worry. But this is Lou Pinella here.
Posted by CyHamels 11:37 AM, 09/18/2008
Your reading it wrong... October 4 and 5 are games 3 and 4, respectively, of the NLDS. We would be home on Oct 1 and 2 if we win the Division. And Dawk, this isn't football, teams don't rest starters, especially pitchers. Pinella will want his players to keep a good rhythm and a "competitive edge" going in the playoffs. If someone else was managing that team, like someone with half a brain, I would worry. But this is Lou Pinella here.
Posted by David_Murphy 11:38 AM, 09/18/2008
Alaver - I probably wasn't real clear. I just listed the away games for those series. The Phillies are in Milwaukee the 4th and 5th, but are at home the 1st and 2nd and, if necesarry, the 7th. I was just trying to get a head start on booking hotel rooms yesterday and figured I'd pass the info along since it took me 15 minutes to figure it out. But yes, if the Phillies win the division, they'll have home field against either the Dodgers or the Brewers (unless Arizona somehow makes up 4 games with 10 to play)
Posted by calm weather 11:43 AM, 09/18/2008
@ alaver - The division series begin in the park of the lower seeded team for two games. The last three games are at home for the higher seeded team.
Posted by alaver 11:48 AM, 09/18/2008
Thanks to everyone who cleared up my confusion--I appreciate it. Clearly, this playoff race is too much math for me. Now--let's go 10-0!
Posted by CyHamels 11:56 AM, 09/18/2008
I would be very, very surprised if the Phillies and the Mets do not BOTH get in.
Posted by GANick 12:20 PM, 09/18/2008
Its the three games a Florida that worry me. They just can't seem to beat them consistently. It they don't take at least 2 of 3, it could spell the end, provided the Mets and Brewers play well. But we all know the Marlins are in their heads.
Posted by Bama 12:20 PM, 09/18/2008
It will take 7 - 3 to win the division and 6 - 4 to win the wild card. Neither one is a lock. I'd rather see them pitch the normal rotation and lose with Happ than rush Hamels or Myers. I am old enough to remember '64 with Mauch pitching Short and Bunning with short rest in a panic, when a normal rotation probably would have clinched.
About David Murphy
David Murphy joined the Daily News as its Phillies beat writer in February of 2008. Born in Upper Merion and raised in the Poconos, he attended college at La Salle University before taking jobs with the Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Sun-News and the St. Petersburg ( Fla. ) Times.

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