Thursday, February 11, 2016

Obama moving up in the polls

There have been three new polls in two days on the Pennsylvania. primary. All of them show movement in Obama's direction.

Obama moving up in the polls


Larry Eichel reports...

10:40 a.m.

And there's a fourth poll just in, this one from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

This poll has Clinton up by 9 points. The previous version had her ahead by 12. So, again, there's movement toward Obama, but not much in this one.

In the past two days, there've been three new polls in the Pennsylvania primary. And all of them show movement in Barack Obama's direction.

The movement almost surely reflects a combination of factors -- Obama's having spent six straight days in the state, his huge television buy, and the fallout from the controversy over Hillary Rodham Clinton's overstatement of how much danger she faced as First Lady landing in Bosnia in 1996.

In the Rasmussen Reports poll, Clinton leads by 5 points. She'd been up 10 in the same poll last week.

In the Survey USA poll, she's up 12. She's been up 19 in the same poll three weeks earlier.

The latest survey, from Public Policy Polling, actually has Obama ahead by 2 points, although that is well within the poll's margin of error. It's hard to know what to make of this one. Two-and-a-half weeks ago, the same company had Clinton ahead by 26, which is much the largest margin recorded in any Pennsylvania poll in the last few months.

Dean Debham, the company president, speculates that the movement "could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it's time to wrap it up." But the poll did not ask a question that would confirm such thinking.   

The bottom line? It's safe to say Obama is gaining ground and that Clinton's hopes for a double-digit win in the state seem like more of a long-shot than a week ago. Beyond that, well, there are still 20 days to go.

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The Inauguration: Jan. 20 blog brings you coverage of President-elect Barack Obama's transition into office.

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Thomas FitzgeraldThomas Fitzgerald joined The Philadelphia Inquirer in 2000, and has covered Harrisburg as well as city, state and national politics for the newspaper. He was a “boy on the bus” in the 2004 presidential campaign and during primary contests in 2000 and 1996.

Nathan Gorenstein has covered politics and government in the city, state and nation for the Inquirer. He's worked in the city hall bureau, had a stint on the business desk, and once covered the suburbs. After serving as assistant regional editor, he was named editor of the "Politics" web site.

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