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Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Obama moving up in the polls

Larry Eichel reports...

10:40 a.m.

And there's a fourth poll just in, this one from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

This poll has Clinton up by 9 points. The previous version had her ahead by 12. So, again, there's movement toward Obama, but not much in this one.

In the past two days, there've been three new polls in the Pennsylvania primary. And all of them show movement in Barack Obama's direction.

The movement almost surely reflects a combination of factors -- Obama's having spent six straight days in the state, his huge television buy, and the fallout from the controversy over Hillary Rodham Clinton's overstatement of how much danger she faced as First Lady landing in Bosnia in 1996.

In the Rasmussen Reports poll, Clinton leads by 5 points. She'd been up 10 in the same poll last week.

In the Survey USA poll, she's up 12. She's been up 19 in the same poll three weeks earlier.

The latest survey, from Public Policy Polling, actually has Obama ahead by 2 points, although that is well within the poll's margin of error. It's hard to know what to make of this one. Two-and-a-half weeks ago, the same company had Clinton ahead by 26, which is much the largest margin recorded in any Pennsylvania poll in the last few months.

Dean Debham, the company president, speculates that the movement "could be an indication that Democrats in that state think it's time to wrap it up." But the poll did not ask a question that would confirm such thinking.   

The bottom line? It's safe to say Obama is gaining ground and that Clinton's hopes for a double-digit win in the state seem like more of a long-shot than a week ago. Beyond that, well, there are still 20 days to go.

Posted by Larry Eichel @ 10:45 AM  Permalink | 83 comments
Comments   
Posted 10:51 AM, 04/02/2008
Tanksleyd
On March 19 Obama gave an Iraq speech but all the news networks suddenly cut from him and onto Hillary in Michigan. Anyone who saw that sudden cut saw a stark abstract between a leader and a bad hair day. Polls Confirm.
Comment removed.
Posted 11:12 AM, 04/02/2008
jzh8spa
All of the sheep will follow Obama, just like all the sheep who supported Bush for the last 8 years.
Posted 11:12 AM, 04/02/2008
Tanksleyd
Who had the audacity to hold a "Women's Rally"? Guess Politically Correct is more than just green people.
Posted 11:17 AM, 04/02/2008
rmship
we are all phoneys, homer or not rmship
Posted 11:30 AM, 04/02/2008
drbinc
This is what hard work, good stewardship and a marvelous ability to convey the American agenda, as president, can do for a campain. I'm reay to vote! How about you.
Posted 11:33 AM, 04/02/2008
jack russell
who is larry eichel?
Posted 11:33 AM, 04/02/2008
tdoc
I like how he says he doesnt take money from big oil. records show he only takes money from big oil executives. whats the difference Obama? this guy is a chameleon. says whatever he thinks people want to hear, and a lot of people are dumb enough to beleive him.
Posted 11:33 AM, 04/02/2008
flavious27
He is only moving up in the polls because nobody is looking into what he said in his new gas ad. His claim of not taking money from oil companies is misleading because nobody does. He doesn't take money from lobbyists, but he employes them. http://www.newsweek.com/id/129895/page/1
Posted 11:34 AM, 04/02/2008
Bob
When will Obama and Hillary stop by Geno's for a cheesesteak and a photo op? Oh, I forgot, it's a hot potato, illegal imigration and all.
Posted 11:35 AM, 04/02/2008
ariadne
another hillary problem... http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm
Posted 11:47 AM, 04/02/2008
ariadne
talking point detective is certainly no sherlock... the reason that obama has been leaning towards the eagles: Obama said he rooted for the Steelers growing up in Hawaii, but lately has preferred the Eagles, because quarterback Donovan McNabb grew up in Chicago, and went to school not far from the Illinois senator's current home. But, of course, Obama said, he's a Chicago Bears fan first.
Posted 11:47 AM, 04/02/2008
Moneyrich
Let God choose your leader instead of Television ads. And if you really want God's will to be done take yourself out of the equation and vote as you feel led by God. This is free advice for the world
Posted 12:03 PM, 04/02/2008
Tammie
Admittedly these numbers don't look, but if we can hang on until the 22nd it'll be okay. All Hillary has to do is win here by 1 vote to claim victory and stay in this to the convention where the superdelegates can make a more informed choice. Hillary 08!!
Posted 12:10 PM, 04/02/2008
ariadne
well tammie that is all very well and good but if she does not have a preponderance of the popular vote and a lead in delegates... nothing she wins will matter. while you are busy praying for her to win read this: http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm is this seriously who you want for president?
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Thomas FitzgeraldThomas Fitzgerald joined The Philadelphia Inquirer in 2000, and has covered Harrisburg as well as city, state and national politics for the newspaper. He was a “boy on the bus” in the 2004 presidential campaign and during primary contests in 2000 and 1996.

Nathan Gorenstein has covered politics and government in the city, state and nation for the Inquirer. He's worked in the city hall bureau, had a stint on the business desk, and once covered the suburbs. After serving as assistant regional editor, he was named editor of the "Politics" web site.

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