Pa. election 'nationalized'

NOTE: THIS STORY HAS BEEN CORRECTED.

Pennsylvania's candidates for governor and U.S. senator in the Nov. 2 general election have personal narratives and policy positions to pitch to voters across the state.

But will it matter?

G. Terry Madonna, director of the Daily News/Franklin & Marshall College Poll, thinks those traditional local election efforts can be overwhelmed by the national political climate.

That's good news for Republicans, who hold healthy leads among "likely voters" in the two Pennsylvania contests.

The election, Madonna concluded as he released a new poll yesterday, has become "nationalized," with Republican voters in the state energized and Democrats unenthused.

President Obama's sinking approval ratings are a drag on U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, the Democrat taking on former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey in the Senate race.

And Gov. Rendell's approval ratings are even lower, a problem for Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, the Democrat facing state Attorney General Tom Corbett in the race for governor.

The poll found that 30 percent of the registered voters thing that the state is headed in the right direction, a 15-year low.

Economic issues ranked as the most important to those polled, at 35 percent, far more important than issues such as taxes, health care or education.

Obama scored a 37 percent approval rating in the poll, while Rendell hit just 30 percent.

Toomey leads Sestak, 31-28 percent, among registered voters with 38 percent still undecided.

But Toomey's lead jumps to 40-31 percent among likely voters, with 26 percent undecided.

"Their voters are more likely to vote," Madonna said of the Republican Party. "They're more motivated to vote."

While that's certainly good news for Toomey, his numbers have not moved much from Madonna's last poll in May, even though his campaign has spent millions on television commercials to attack Sestak's record.

Madonna said that that probably shows that many voters are still not paying attention to the race.

"Personally, I've never understood a lot of commercials done over the summer months," Madonna said.

Sestak wooed independent and Republican voters in the last two weeks with endorsements by Republican-turned-independent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican.

Corbett leads Onorato in the governor's race, 29-28 percent, with 39 percent undecided. Among likely voters, Corbett's lead improves to 38-27 percent with 31 percent undecided.

Madonna said that voters, after eight years of Rendell, might be looking for a different direction and associate Onorato too closely with him.

Onorato has been trying to capitalize on Corbett gaffes to raise his name recognition.

The poll found that Onorato was unknown to 53 percent of the respondents.

Onorato went on a statewide tour last month to publicize comments from Corbett that people without jobs were turning down work to keep collecting unemployment checks.

Onorato seized yesterday on a change in Corbett's position on state tax and fee increases. Corbett in March said that he would not raise taxes or fees. His campaign this week said that that pledge was for taxes but not for fees.

Madonna noted that Onorato is trying to have a conversation about taxes as Rendell on Monday proposed an 8 percent tax on gross profits for oil companies and an increase in fees for driver's licenses and vehicle registrations to raise $1 billion to fund state and local transportation and transit costs.

"That's a huge problem for Dan," Madonna said.

CORRECTION: