John Baer: Arlen needs magic before his reelection vanishes
A RECENT notice from Arlen Specter's campaign caught my eye - an e-mail tag-lined "Arlen Gets Magic." Good thing, I thought - he might need it.
A RECENT notice from
Arlen Specter's campaign caught my eye - an e-mail tag-lined "Arlen Gets Magic."
Good thing, I thought - he might need it.
The Republican-turned-Democrat seeking a sixth Senate term runs at a time when an edgy electorate might look askance at long-serving pols, and he runs against a primary opponent - U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, of the Philly 'burbs, who doesn't seem likely to fold. Some magic, I figure, might help.
But it turns out that the notice is about a person rather than supernatural powers. Turns out Specter ran into an NBA Hall-of-Famer, former L.A. Laker Earvin "Magic" Johnson, on the Penn campus Friday. Specter was en route to meet a group of young Dems. Johnson was on a campus visit with his son.
Since the 6'9" Magic isn't hard to spot and was parked near where Specter was arriving, the senator, according to aides, walked up to say hello.
At this point, Johnson starts dishing praise and Arlen, never shy about seizing a moment, asks if Johnson wouldn't mind saying such things to the group Arlen's to address.
And an on-site blogger reports that Johnson does so, calling Specter an "American treasure" and citing Specter's "devotion" to the nation.
I, of course, call Sestak's camp to ask if they're after Donovan McNabb.
"We personally haven't been in touch with Donovan," says spokesman Jonathon Dworkin, "but I'm sure we'd love to have his support."
It's a minor moment in a long campaign, but points up an Arlen trait: his dogged style finds bones with which he builds a body of work consistently leading to wins.
Will this time be different? Two national Democratic strategists recently suggested it might.
Joe Trippi on MSNBC's "Countdown" last week was asked about Sestak's camp cashing in on Specter's voting for John McCain and Sarah Palin because Specter thought that they were "the better choice."
Trippi said, "I think that means the race in Pennsylvania's gotten a little bit more fun, and that Sestak is not going to be a slouch and an easy pushover for Specter."
A second national Democratic consultant requesting anonymity says that despite how things look today - Specter leads Sestak in this month's Quinnipiac poll 44-25 - his money's on Sestak.
Among the arguments is that the two-term congressman and retired Navy admiral is unknown with lots of room to grow before next spring's primary while Specter's a known incumbent running below 50 percent.
In July, Quinnipiac had Specter over Sestak 55-23; and Specter's favorable ratings, according to Qunnipiac, are down from 56 percent in November '08 to 42 percent this month.
Another argument is that the Democratic vote is larger, younger and more liberal than at any point in Specter's career, and that favors Sestak as he runs left of Arlen, tagging Arlen for past support of conservative Republicans George Bush and Rick Santorum.
Democratic registration stands at 4.3 million (in 1991 is was 2.7 million). While that includes 200,000-plus Specter-type Republicans who switched last year to vote Democratic, it also includes a like number of new Democrats who might not cotton to Specter's past GOP alliances.
But Democratic state chairman T.J. Rooney says that Specter's long service built a "hidden infrastructure" of Democratic county and local officials whom Specter, with seven in-state offices, helped over time.
"The race really hasn't taken shape," says Rooney. "Once it does, folks will be reminded of what Arlen's done for them."
And Specter's camp believes that it has a hammer in Sestak's missed votes (their current count is 125; first in the state, ninth in the nation) this year.
"Not showing up for work is something people understand," says Specter campaign manager Chris Nicholas.
Sestak says that many of these votes were procedural. His campaign notes that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, of Maryland, called Sestak Congress' "most productive" freshman after Sestak's first term.
It's too soon to say what turns this race, and who knows what gaffes might come. Specter's experience is a clear advantage. Sestak saying that Specter's support of Bush economics helped put the nation in a deep recession could resonate depending on how the economy goes.
But today, even if Arlen does have magic, it doesn't look like he'll have a slam-dunk. *
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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