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Think it through.
Palin can't much change the spreading impression that she peaked in St. Paul and ever since has tried to hide behind rote Republican talking points.
Yeah, she's likeable. Yeah, she's intriguing. But, really now, come on.
Meager media exposure, faltering interviews, a debate format designed (for her) with shorter answers and the devastating, dead-on parodies by SNL's Tina Fey all combine to paint a picture of someone less than ready to lead.
In a time of economic crisis? Not a politically pretty picture.
Also, Palin's greatest asset - her I'm-like-you charm - won't play as well tomorrow night as it has so far.
Not that it isn't a considerable asset.
It is, and covers lots of ground: a working mom with a pregnant daughter, son in the service and a special-needs child; a plain-talker (she even often drops her g's); a youngish (44) pro-life pol tied to family, faith and the frontier spirit.
It's a profile made for the GOP base. It brought enthusiasm to John McCain's campaign.
But with the nation in fiscal meltdown and voters fearful about the future, stories of bridges to nowhere, hunting moose, who's a maverick or how close Alaska is to Russia just won't cut it.
Voters, like maybe never before, want serious answers to serious problems.
"I do think this debate may swing some votes," says Shirley Anne Warshaw, a presidential scholar, author and Gettysburg College political-science professor.
"Nobody has any expectations at all about Palin," says Warshaw, "but Biden has to clearly present his views about the Obama/Biden ticket, and has the chance to really dominate this debate with a detailed explanation of what an Obama/Biden ticket would do to solve the economic crisis."
In other words, it's all on Biden.
In other words, Palin does well if she doesn't upchuck on her shoes.
In other words, because of the timing, it's a rare V.P. debate that could impact the election.
But, for Palin, who has undergone intense scrutiny and kid-gloves treatment, according to University of Virginia gender-politics expert Lynn Sanders, there is a danger of full failure.
"There's a risk of enforcing gender stereotypes that women are less informed in politics," says Sanders, "and while I don't think she can do as badly as on the ["CBS News" anchor Katie] Couric interviews, if she does, she could become like Admiral Stockdale, a vice-presidential candidate whose name no one remembers."
The late James Stockdale was Ross Perot's running mate in '92. He appeared lost at sea during that year's V.P. debate.
But Biden needs to be careful, too.
In addition to avoiding mocking, bullying or condescending to Palin, he must overcome his own (and many pols') chronic condition: It's all about me and I can't stop talking.
He needs to make it all about Obama and why Obama's better than McCain, and do all he can to keep Palin talking.
(As he did in one of the Democratic-primary debates, he might want to make fun of his own verbosity by offering at least one one-word answer.)
And, it's probably a good idea that he not mention his recently stated view of history that FDR went on TV to soothe the nation when the stock market crashed in 1929.
Uh, FDR wasn't president; there were no TVs.
The debate, at Washington University in St. Louis, is moderated by Gwen Ifill of PBS's "The Newshour" and "Washington Week," and airs at 9 p.m. tomorrow.
Keep your eye on Biden.*
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
For recent columns, go to
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