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Clout: 26 facets reflect a gem of a primary

Here's Clout's preview of tomorrow's

primary election from A to Z:

A is for American-flag lapel pin. Now that it's a hot issue, who will be the first legislator to introduce a bill making flag-pin wearing mandatory?

B is for Barack Obama. Either an upset win or a narrow loss will make him the Democratic presidential nominee.

C is for Committee of Seventy. The watchdog group will put a few hundred volunteers on the streets tomorrow to monitor the polls for trouble.

D is for John Dougherty, who seeks to replace his longtime rival, retiring state Sen. Vince Fumo. Expect more fireworks in this contest than in the presidential.

E is for eight. There are eight state House incumbents in the city facing challenges tomorrow in a grass-roots test of how much voters want change.

F is for Larry Farnese, a lawyer whom Fumo has tapped to be his successor. Will enough Fumocrats transfer their loyalties to beat Dougherty?

G is for Goddess of Good Government. That's Anne Dicker, who somehow hopes to eke out a victory in the Battle of Titans between Dougherty and Fumo.

H is for Hillary Clinton. Pennsylvania is key to a Clinton Restoration, and she is favored to win. Unless voters want to break the Bush-Clinton cycle.

I is for ID card. If you are a first-time voter you will need either a photo ID or an ID with your name and address on it to vote.

J is for Jay-Z. After alluding to his tough Philly debate, Obama did a Jay-Z "Get the Dirt Off Your Shoulders" brush-off hand signal during a speech in Raleigh, N.C. It was a YouTube sensation, but Obama better hope oldsters don't check out Jay-Z's lyrics.

K is for Kenyatta Johnson, 34, one of the young insurgents trying to unseat a longtime state House member, in this case Harold James, 65, who's been in office 20 years.

L is for likability. Issues do matter, but in the end, voters usually choose the candidate they find most likable. Is either Democrat more likable than Republican John McCain?

M is for John McCain. At age 71, McCain could generate goodwill by promising to quit after one term, some pundits suggest. Chances of that happening: zero.

N is for negative. Clinton and Obama each launched negative TV ads this past weekend on health care. This is healthy for McCain.

O is for other contested races, which have been eclipsed by Clinton/Obama. Besides the state Senate and House races, Democrats will choose among four candidates for a state treasurer nominee.

P is for "Person Number 30." Full-page newspaper ads say he is running for the state House in South Philly. We couldn't find either a "Person" or a "Thirty" on the ballot, but if "Client Number 9" can get elected governor of New York, "Person Number 30" has a chance.

Q is for questions. There are two in the city on the ballot. One would increase the number of top-level aides Mayor Nutter can hire and the other would divide the duties of the city representative's office. The mayor supports both.

R is for results. The results of a new Pittsburgh Post-Gazette poll show Hillary with a huge lead among hunters and bowlers.

S is for suburbs. There are 91,000 newly registered Democrats in the four suburban counties around Philadelphia. If most of them vote for Obama, that, combined with his expected big margin in Philadelphia, could create an upset.

T is for TV ads. Obama has been outspending Clinton better than two to one. The ads might influence last-minute deciders.

U is for undecided. Polls show that just under one in five voters still aren't sure how they'll vote. That means anything that happens today will have outsized impact (recall the scary Osama bin Laden tape the weekend before President Bush's re-election?).

V is for Vince. With a federal corruption trial looming, the election to choose his successor could be the swan song for the city's most powerful and fascinating politician.

W is for Weather Underground. Obama doesn't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows: It's an ill wind from his connection, no matter how slight, to radical William Ayers. Expect Ayers to become the Swift Boat of 2008.

X is for X-factor. The X-factor is regional turnout. Big turnout in western Pennsylvania is good for Clinton. Big turnout in the east is good for Obama.

Y is for youth vote. If the under-30 crowd turns out in bigger numbers than it traditionally does, that will be good news for Obama.

Z is for zeitgeist, a fancy word for the mood of the time. Is the nation ready for a new generation of leadership? *

Staff writer Gar Joseph contributed to this report.


Have a news tip? Gossip? Suggestion? Contact Gar Joseph at clout@phillynews.com, call 215-854-5895, or fax 215-854-5910.
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