John Baer: Why the Ill. senator will be president

I'VE TOLD THIS story to family and friends.

I was on the floor of the 2004 Democratic convention in Boston's Fleet Center talking with Pennsylvania delegates about John Kerry's chances of carrying the state that November (I didn't think they were great; he narrowly won, by 144,000 votes).

This was during the convention's keynote address, because few on the floor listen to the address, especially, I figured, from an unknown Illinois state senator.

But then I noticed people paying attention, so I stepped into an aisle and listened, too; before long I thought, "Well, well, what have we here?"

I still think that today.

And, yeah, I know last night's results are muddled and lots can happen between now and the Democratic convention in Denver and the general election in November.

But it's gonna be Barack Obama.

The reasons are multiple:

* His demonstrated ability to attract new voters. I don't see Hillary Clinton getting more or new support.

* His momentum. Hillary has held huge leads. Gallup Poll daily tracking shows she led Obama by 16 points less than two weeks ago, but by just five points this week. And she's already had her comeback.

* The war, the economy, health care, partisanship, politics as usual, Clinton (both of them) fatigue and America's inherent ability to hope for something better.

* And common sense.

Republican voters, actually to my surprise, are about to crown John McCain. I assume they realize he's the only Republican with an ability to attract independents and some Democrats, and therefore the only Republican with any shot at winning the presidency.

I think Democrats, perhaps more slowly, will realize Obama has a better shot than Hillary (too much baggage, too much Bill) because he, unlike she, is not polarizing and will not fire up the GOP base.

If you recall, he even said nice things about Ronald Reagan.

Experience?

I don't buy that argument. Neither Hillary nor Obama has executive experience.

And pure experience is over-rated. Who brought more experience to government than Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, and what good did it do the country?

(I won't mention President Bush. His father, then his father's friends, carried him.)

And I like JFK's answer when he ran, younger than Obama: "Experience is like taillights on a boat which illuminate where we have been when we should be focusing on where we should be going."

Oh, and don't start with me. I know Obama's not Kennedy. And I know Kennedy wasn't perfect. But I'm old enough to remember his generational pull, and I recognize it happening again.

"Clearly there's something going on," says Pennsylvania Democratic Party chief T.J. Rooney, who, like Gov. Rendell, supports Hillary.

Rooney tells me he knows what it takes to get a crowd for a candidate - deep political infrastructure. Obama has none in Delaware but drew 20,000 people in Wilmington on Sunday.

Hillary has political infrastructure. Obama has something more.

I don't discount the volatility of national politics these days, nor the power, connections (i.e., super-delegates) and ambition of the Clintons.

But I do discount "inevitability."

Remember Rudy leading the pack? Remember Howard Dean? When Bobby Casey was going to be governor? When Chaka Fattah was going to be mayor?

Hillary's a better politician. Obama's a better candidate.

"Our time has come, our movement is real, and change is coming to America," Obama said last night.

People believe him.

Against McCain, Obama can win issues such as the economy (not a strong suit for McCain, by his own admission), the war (Obama always opposed it) and health care (assuming Democrats retain Congress, he can get more done).

I was wrong about Kerry in Pa. in '04, although I did predict he wouldn't win the White House. An Obama win in November? I go 2-for-2. *

Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.

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