Oscar-ology 101: Who’ll win Best Supporting Actress?

Starting today, The Inquirer's movie critics, Steven Rea and Carrie Rickey, will chat each day by e-mail about the biggest categories in the Academy Awards, which will be given out Feb. 24. They'll dive into the Oscar pool and pick their favorites.

Will the thrice-nominated Johnny Depp win his first best-actor Oscar as the revenge-thirsty barber in the bloody Sweeney Todd?

Will the best movie be grim (Atonement), grimmer (There Will Be Blood) or grimmest (No Country for Old Men). Or, for that matter, will it be something completely different - a law-firm thriller (Michael Clayton) or a snappy, crowd-pleasing comedy (Juno)?

Today we start with best supporting actress. Feel free to leave your comments.

Carrie Rickey: Don't you think supporting actress the most unpredictable Oscar category this year? An 83-year old veteran (Ruby Dee in American Gangster), a 13-year-old newcomer (Saoirse Ronan, frighteningly talented as the unreliable narrator in Atonement), a Broadway-trained spitfire (Amy Ryan as the mom-from-hell in Gone, Baby, Gone), an iconic actress as an iconic musician (Cate Blanchett as Bob Dylan in I'm Not There) and the eternal chameleon (Tilda Swinton as the corporate mouthpiece in Michael Clayton).

Steven Rea: Like all four acting categories, supporting actress is rich with great performances, which makes prognostication and prediction doubly difficult. If I were an Academy member, Blanchett would have my vote – it's not just the uncanny gender switch she pulls off, but the way she embodies the Don't Look Back-era Dylan, skinny pants, smirk and all.

Carrie: While I agree that Blanchett should get the prize because of the degree-of-difficulty, don't count out Dee's righteous mother (of Denzel Washington's nefarious druglord in Gangster). She's been making movies for almost 60 years, and this is her FIRST nomination in a distinguished career.

Steven: I suspect Ruby Dee will win out – not for the role as Denzel's mom, but for her body of work.

Carrie: Dee took the Screen Actors Guild honors, an 80 percent reliable Oscar barometer, while Blanchett won the Golden Globe, a much less reliable bellwether. And Dee is the only one of the five who plays a simpatico character, which might be an advantage in a year when the other nominees are a flinty celebrity, treacherous pre-teen, monster mom and compromised corporado.

Steven: It's Oscar tradition to honor a heretofore neglected Academy talent.

Carrie: So we agree, Ruby Dee?

Steven: Ruby Dee, indeed.

Coming Monday: Best supporting actor.