Is NBC Fallon on its Sword?

NEW YORK - "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" is one of the few remaining successful programs that NBC has on its network. So why would its executives think about getting rid of him?

NBC has confirmed that it is building a new studio for Jimmy Fallon at its New York headquarters but refuses to comment on reports that Fallon is due to replace Leno on a New York-based "Tonight" as early as next year.

With Leno already taking potshots at network executives regularly in his monologue, the network risks repeating the nightmare of 2010, when Conan O'Brien failed at "Tonight" and NBC brought Leno back.

"They seem to be making the same mistakes over and over again with a new regime," said Christine Becker, an associate professor at Notre Dame University and author of the News For TV Majors blog. "You kind of wonder what's in the water at NBC that is making them make that decision."

On its face, such a move would seem like a proactive strategy from NBC's new corporate owners at Comcast Corp., known for its decisive decision-making.

Leno, 62, and his longtime rival David Letterman, 65, are approaching the end of their long late-night reigns. Fallon, 38 and with his own late-night show getting critical acclaim, represents the next generation. So does Jimmy Kimmel, 45, at ABC, and that network made the strategic chess move in January to give him the same time slot as Leno and Letterman.

Leno's contract expires next year and so does Letterman's, so some corporate fear might be involved: Does NBC risk losing Fallon to another network that can offer an earlier time slot than the 12:35 a.m. one he now occupies? There's also some concern that Kimmel will establish himself as the 11:35 p.m. favorite of a younger audience before Fallon can establish himself.

While all the corporate thinking is going on, Leno has continued to stay in the ratings lead.

That's no small feat at NBC, which has seen its prime-time lineup collapse to historic ratings lows this winter. Leno, "Saturday Night Live," and Brian Williams' "Nightly News" are the only reliable ratings leaders left at the network.

Leno has held strong against the ratings challenge posed by Kimmel. So far this year, "The Tonight Show" is averaging 3.42 million viewers, Letterman has 3.03 million and Kimmel has 2.57 million, according to the Nielsen Co. Leno is also leading among the 18-to-49-year-old age group that NBC considers most important. How Leno's fans would react to the idea of his leaving "The Tonight Show" before he wants is anybody's guess. Leno, with a relentless run of jokes targeting the futility of NBC executives in recent weeks, doesn't seem particularly happy.