Thomas Fitzgerald: Why Iowa and N.H.?

Nobody ever really decided that Iowa and New Hampshire get to go first. It just kind of happened.

And now they're entrenched at the top of the political food chain, two predominantly rural and racially homogenous states with outsize influence in choosing a president - the great sieves for the rest of us.

New Hampshire's primary started to get huge in 1952, when President Harry Truman lost the Democratic primary and decided it was time to go, and Dwight Eisenhower beat Robert Taft on the Republican side.

And few paid attention to Iowa's quaint caucuses until 1976, when a Georgia peanut farmer named Jimmy Carter finished second to "undecided," but well ahead of a pack of better-known Democrats.

In 30 days, thousands of Iowa Republicans will gather in school gyms, grange halls, town halls, and homes to declare their preferences for president. New Hampshire follows Jan. 10 with a primary that lets independents participate.

If history is any guide, some candidates who do poorly will quit, and the winners will be propelled forward on a tide of buzz, narrowing the choices available in states that are later on the primary calendar. (Pennsylvania's is April 24; New Jersey's is June 5.)

Iowa and New Hampshire "will winnow the field; they'll knock out several candidates before they ever face voters who look a lot more like America," said Rob Richie, executive director of Fair Vote, a nonprofit that advocates changes to boost voter participation. "There's no particular rational reason for them to go first."

Even so, Iowa and New Hampshire feature intense, one-on-one contact between voters and candidates that would not be possible in megastates or in a national same-day primary.

New Hampshire voters "take their responsibility very seriously" and are discerning consumers, said Corey Lewandowski, director of the state chapter of conservative-minded Americans for Prosperity. "There's something to be said for old-fashioned retail politics and tradition."

He and Richie were speaking Friday during a panel discussion at American University in Washington on the quadrennial debate: Is it fair that Iowa and New Hampshire get to go first every time, and if not, what should be done?

They don't necessarily "look like America," to borrow a phrase.

Both states are about 94 percent white, according to the 2010 Census. Hispanics are 2.8 percent of each - compared to 16 percent nationally. Just 1.1 percent of New Hampshire is black; in Iowa it's 2.1 percent. Nationally, African Americans are 12.6 percent of the population.

Richie believes primaries should be rotated among states by lot, starting with smaller ones (to preserve retail campaigning) and ending with the big ones. Others favor regional primaries, with each section of the country taking a turn going first, or one national primary.

It's complicated to change, though, because the parties are private organizations picking convention delegates to choose their own leaders and craft their own platforms.

"I don't know if I want the federal government telling me how to run my group," Richie said.

The biggest challenge to the primacy of the two states may be the evolving nature of campaigning - what some are calling the "Fox Effect."

This year, the Republican campaign seems driven more by a series of 11 almost-weekly debates and daily dueling-candidate appearances on Fox News, than by the grind of diner visits to Berlin, N.H., or town halls in Sioux Center, Iowa. Overall candidate spending is down from 2008 - because the debates and the news coverage they generate are cheaper than paying for tons of ads or extensive grassroots work.

Iowa, especially, has always put a premium on ground organization to help draw candidates' supporters to caucuses in 2,000 far-flung precincts.

So far, though, there seems to be an inverse relationship between the time candidates spend in Iowa on "retail" and their standing in polls there.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has visited the most - 78 days and 226 events through Friday, according to the Des Moines Register's "candidate tracker" database. His average support in all Iowa polls this year? Four percent.

Michele Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who was born in the state, is the next most-active Iowa campaigner. She has spent 62 days there, with 125 events - for a polling average of 8.7 percent.

By comparison, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (50 days, 90 events) averages 26 percent in Iowa polls; Mitt Romney is at 15 percent (eight days, 18 events). No other candidate cracks double digits.

"I think this year is going to be a real test of organization in Iowa," GOP pollster Glen Bolger said. "Maybe organization doesn't matter as much as an Internet plus Fox News/conservative talk-radio presence on the Republican side."

But Iowa and New Hampshire will still be the sieves. Take it from Jimmy Carter. Or Harry Truman.