Although he sometimes talks in terms of eight years, my Spidey sense tells me Donald Trump won’t be a two-term president. I don’t even think he will be a one-term president. I am speculating about two possibilities.
First, he will be impeached.
Last week the Trump Administration obeyed the “outrageous” decision by a “so-called” judge, but then appealed the judge's temporary restraining order to federal court. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rebuffed the administration and Trump tweeted, "see you in court."
So far, so good. This could wind up before the United States Supreme Court. If this one doesn't, another will.
If SCOTUS slaps him down, will Trump accept that decision?
Defiance of the courts would be the yellow brick road to Trump’s impeachment. If you think senators such as “Little” Marco Rubio and “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz would protect him, you don’t understand political egos.
To put it into familiar terms for Trump, Attorney General Jeff Sessions would explain “impeachment” is like “you’re fired.”
If Trump turns a deaf ear to Sessions and ignores the court, he will be impeached.
That brings us to scenario #2: If he yields to the law, kicking, screaming, and tweeting, Trump will realize that, unlike in the business world, in government there are limits to the CEO’s power.
And that will just ruin his day.
Where’s the fun in running the entire circus if someone takes away your top hat and whip?
If he can’t do what he wants, when he wants, he may just declare victory and quit.
His ego was more than satisfied by winning the presidency. He showed America, and Hillary Clinton (and, most importantly, Arnold Schwarzenegger) that he could capture the highest office in the land.
He showed Germany and Australia and Mexico that he has brass ones. What’s left to prove?
If Richard Nixon could resign, Trump can resign.
If a pope could resign, Trump can resign.
Bookmakers in Ireland and the United Kingdom, who will lay odds on almost anything, have a line on Trump. Ladbrokes sees a 50-50 chance he’ll be impeached or resign before the end of his first term. On the “will Trump resign” line, Paddy Power has 15-8 odds, a 34.8 percent implied probability. William Hill lays odds on Trump resigning “before the end of his first term" at 11-8, a 42.1 percent implied probability, according to Gambling.com
To supplement my thinking, I asked around.
One reason he might not make four years is actuarial, notes John K. Wilson, author of President Trump Unveiled: Exposing the Bigoted Billionaire. “The statistics say that a 70½ year-old-man has about an 11 percent chance of dying in the next four years.”
Interesting point. Age was never much of an issue during the campaign, with Bernie Sanders in his mid-70s and Hillary Clinton pushing 70. Youth must be served? Not in 2016.
Trump will collapse within a year, predicts political psychologist Bart Rossi, who launched the Rossi Psychological Group in Somerville, N.J., in 1977. “His extreme narcissistic personality — which is now being challenged daily," will be crushed, Rossi says.
But he won’t resign. “A narcissist doesn’t resign,” Rossi tells me. “He will keep on doing the same behavior, but to a greater extreme” which eventually will call his mental stability into question.
Taking the inside politics path, Cenk Uygur expects Trump to be the victim of a palace revolt before 2018’s midterm elections.
GOP leadership “might impeach, they might find a way to persuade him to resign, a combination of carrot and stick,” says Uygur, host of the popular The Young Turks internet news program.
Once the GOP gets what it wants in terms of tax cuts and deregulation, “they'll probably throw him overboard and pretend they were never as extreme as he was,” says Uygur.
So those are the opinions: mine and the “experts.”
A final note: When Trump was elected, he defied all the expert opinion that it was impossible.