Stu Bykofsky: The fault is not in my stars but in yourselves if you don't vote

WHEN AMERICA votes on Tuesday, one thing we know: The Latino vote will determine the winner.

I mean, the women's vote. That's for sure.

The way independents break, that's the key.

The youth vote! White males!

Over the past few weeks, every possible subgroup (no lefthanded Albanian vampires?) took its turn in the spotlight as the victory linchpin for either President Obama or Gov. Mitt Romney. The media spin is like watching a dog chase his tail.

On Tuesday, all the splinters will have their say in what is expected to be a close election by everyone except Democratic turncoat Dick Morris and whiteboard illustrator Karl Rove. They predict that Romney will stomp Obama. Yes, enthusiasm for Obama is down. When was the last time someone fainted at a rally?

Over the weekend, Larry Kane's analysis on KYW Newsradio 1060 had it right: Because the results of so many key contests fall within the margin of error, the outcome is unknowable.

So, add margin of error to the list of things that will determine the outcome.

[Editor's Note: Stu's margin of error is 1 to 3 percent.]

Right now, I think that Mitt Romney will win the popular vote and Obama will win the Electoral College, pretty much reversing what happened in 2000 when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in the Electoral College while Gore received more votes from Americans. Then, the Republicans said that the system worked; Democrats wanted to dismantle it. Let's see how they feel this time, should the split happen again, with an opposite outcome.

So I have made one prediction, and I've summoned Stu's Stars to tell you what the experts think.

First organized in 2009, Stu's Stars are a half-dozen political insiders and analysts, Republican and Democrat, male and female, black and white. To wring honest opinions out of them, I guarantee them anonymity - even from one another. Like in the movie "Reservoir Dogs," they get colors instead of names.

Like America, on some questions they are severely fractured. I knew they would not agree on the winner, but they didn't come close to agreement on Philadelphia turnout or on whether this is a momentous election.

Let's start there. Red sees this as a bellwether election because "this is the first time in years it has been such a close race." Each party is mobilizing its base. Green says no, it will be a "continuation of four more years of deadlock." Brown says that it should be momentous, but won't be "because the media will focus on how the country's first African-American president was denied the chance to implement his vision."

The majority of Stu's Stars believe that Romney will win, while also agreeing that Obama will win Pennsylvania. The presidential split ranged from Pink's 53-46 percent for Romney to Green's 50.5-49 percent for Obama.

As for Philadelphia turnout, Green is wildly optimistic, with 70 percent, while pessimistic Orange sees 36 percent, with the rest falling in between.

Numbers can be dry, so I asked how the winner cobbled together his victory. Green says that Obama will get the same demographics as in 2008, but fewer percentages of them voting for him (except African-Americans) and lower turnout. Orange says that Romney had to "rally discontent, eschew . . . socialism and act like a grownup."

Pink notes that because Obama's approval rating has been under 50 percent for two years, Romney just "had to be a viable alternative." Red says that Romney "went with the white male vote, the elderly and the Republican base."

Most agree that the first debate helped Romney a lot, the Benghazi consulate attack hurt Obama a little and the president's handling of Sandy helped him a little.

I agree with all that, but what they say and what I say isn't as important as what you say, and you have your say on Tuesday. Vote!