Jensen: Villanova's path has potholes: Duke, Virginia and Virginia Tech
First reaction: The NCAA tournament selection committee did Villanova no big favors again. Of course, putting Villanova in the same East region as overall top seed Kansas last season ended up hurting only Kansas.
First reaction: The NCAA tournament selection committee did Villanova no big favors again.
Of course, putting Villanova in the same East region as overall top seed Kansas last season ended up hurting only Kansas.
This time, the defending national champion Wildcats are the overall top seed, and if there is a genuine S-curve, it's tough to believe Duke, tournament champion of the toughest league in the country, playing as well as any team in NCAA hoops right now, should be playing the overall top seed.
There was serious debate among the March Madness pundits this weekend about whether Duke deserved a No. 1 seed now that its best players are playing their best ball. The committee gave a firm no to that. By current rule it couldn't put the No. 5 overall in with Villanova as top seed, so Duke was no better than sixth best in the committee's opinion.
"Duke came in as the top-ranked team on the 4 line," said selection committee chairman Mark Hollis, Michigan State's athletic director, referring to Duke's starting the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament as a No. 4 seed in the committee's mind, apparently 13th overall, before "working their way up. They got stopped along the way."
Not by losing, just by the committee's deciding other No. 2 seeds still deserved more consideration than the Blue Devils.
Can't forget, having Villanova in its region is doing Duke no favors. And neither Duke nor Villanova got any kind of glide path to the East region final at Madison Square Garden.
Statistical guru Ken Pomeroy doesn't necessarily have Duke getting to the Elite Eight. Pomeroy has Villanova No. 2 overall behind Gonzaga, but Duke back as 12th best overall, more like a No. 3 seed.
Flip side: Pomeroy has Virginia, a No. 5 seed in the East behind No. 4 Florida and possible Villanova Sweet 16 opponent, as seventh best overall, more like a No. 2 seed. Pomeroy also has SMU, a No. 6 seed in the East, as his 10th best overall, better than either Duke or East No. 6 seed Baylor.
The committee doesn't necessarily factor in such rankings, but it shows the East is tough all over, since five of the top 12 teams in Pomeroy's statistical rankings are in the East, when a true S-curve would have only three.
You don't have to tell Villanova that a date with Virginia is a visit to the dentist - the Wildcats have been through it already this season, and barely survived at home, needing memorable end-game heroics by Donte DiVincenzo to get by the Cavs, who would be the Sweet 16 appointment if both 'Nova and Virginia make it out of the first weekend.
Yes, we're getting ahead of ourselves, looking to the second weekend when before last season getting out of Week One was a fairly big problem for 'Nova. A first matchup with the winner of Mount St. Mary's vs. New Orleans doesn't offer any obvious hardship beyond the need to not look past it and some jumpers.
After that, the Wisconsin-Virginia Tech winner would be waiting in Buffalo. No bye game there at all. A 25-8 Wisconsin team that finished tied for second in the Big Ten and beat up on Northwestern before losing to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament final is a heck of a No. 8 seed. The Badgers faded late in the regular season and that clearly caused them to lose seed lanes going into its conference tournament.
You'd better make Villanova work for shots to have a chance. Wisconsin is 13th in the Big Ten in three-point field-goal percentage defense, not the best line on the resumé to take on the Wildcats.
However, Wisconsin was sixth in its league in field-goal percentage. Looking at the teams that beat Villanova this season, Butler (twice) and Marquette, both were within the top four in the Big East in field-goal percentage. Butler was the only team better than Villanova at turnover margin, reflecting its play at both ends. Marquette and Butler also were second and third in the league in assist-to-turnover margin, just ahead of Villanova. Wisconsin was second to Michigan in the Big Ten in turnover margin.
And if it's Virginia Tech? The Hokies shoot 49 percent, best in the ACC. Don't sleep on the Hokies. They've won at Michigan and beaten Duke, Virginia, and Miami in league play, and coach Buzz Williams won't shake at the idea of a matchup with Villanova from his days at Marquette.
All this means that if Jay Wright's team gets to Phoenix, it will earn it. This path has more potholes than the Wildcats saw before last season's Elite Eight, and then Duke has all the weapons to make it an interesting night of it if both get to a Madison Square Garden matchup, which, by the way, would be a tougher ticket than even the Final Four.
@jensenoffcampus