This stock-picking method is off the charts

DEAR HARRY: I recently attended a couple of seminars on the stock-picking technique called charting. I back-tested it on several stocks and got positive results. I was ready to use it on two stocks that I have been following, but my brother cautioned me that no pattern or sequence of patterns is a sure thing in either buying or selling. He also said that none of our modern stock whizzes uses charting to any extent, and even then uses it as backup for other analyses. You can see why I am hesitant about using it, even on a test. What do you think of this method of investing? Is it worth a try?

WHAT HARRY SAYS: When I was in college, I marveled at the guys who were studying charting with their superconfidence about calling the shots for the market both short- and long-term. To me, as a stat-and-econ major, it was just two steps away from nonsense. Not one of these fellows got it right for more than half their predictions. Since then, I have not seen one case in which the chartist got it right more than half the time in a 10-year period. If it really worked, why isn't the technique used by more mutual-fund managers? A zillion people think they can beat the market by detailed analysis of individual companies. They are competing with each other in their picks, so the fair-haired boy today is the bum of tomorrow. That's why I like the philosophy of investing promoted by Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard: Buy index funds.