Rendell: Four-team football playoffs leave good teams out in the cold

LAST YEAR, I wrote about the unfairness of the NCAA football playoff system and how limiting the playoffs to four teams would inevitably bring about controversy, as a number of teams are unfairly left out of the playoff for the national championship.

As it turned out, though, last year did not support my theory. The four teams chosen for the playoffs were clearly the four best in college football, and there was almost no controversy.

This year, however, we are facing the real possibility that some great teams won't make the playoffs and the fact is, this could be completely avoided if the NCAA expanded the playoffs to eight teams.

For example, assume that the current top four teams in the rankings - Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington - all win out and finish undefeated. What if Baylor does the same and we have five undefeated teams all from the five power conferences? Someone must be left out. How would the selection committee decide?

It's almost impossible to figure out what criteria will be used to pick either the Huskies or the Bears for the fourth and final spot. Many people have criticized Baylor because its nonconference schedule is filled with weaker teams (Northwestern State, SMU and Rice). So, therefore, you would pick Washington. But, as Lee Corso says, "Not so fast!" An examination of the Huskies' nonconference schedule reveals three equally weak opponents (Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State).

Now, let's assess those two contenders' in-conference records. If the Huskies win out, they will face only one team in the top 20, Utah. The Bears, on the other hand, will need to defeat two top-20 rivals to make it into the playoffs, Oklahoma and West Virginia. So whom would you pick? These Pac-12 and Big 12 teams are pretty much equal in the strength of their opponents, and their nonconference schedules are both equally soft. It seems impossible to choose. And there is the dilemma.

But consider an even more hectic scenario. Let's assume all of the following: Alabama loses a regular-season game to LSU or Auburn, but gets into the conference championship game and wins; Ohio State beats Michigan and both teams wind up with one loss; Louisville wins out and ends its season with one loss; Clemson loses to Florida State this weekend and finishes with one loss; Washington is upset this weekend playing at Utah; Baylor is upset by Oklahoma and wins the rest of its games; West Virginia wins all of its remaining games before losing to Baylor in their season finale; and Boise State wins out and finishes undefeated. That would mean eight strong one-loss teams (Alabama, Michigan, Clemson, Washington, Louisville, Ohio State, Baylor and West Virginia) and one undefeated team - Boise State.

How in God's name could we pick only four for the playoffs? I could not begin to decide. My guess would be that the committee would ignore Boise State because of a relatively weak schedule, although the Broncos would have defeated two Pac-12 teams (Washington State and Oregon State) and a tough independent in BYU. Of the eight one-loss teams, the committee certainly would pick Alabama based on the strength of the SEC and Clemson because it was the runner-up last year. Then, it would have to decide between Michigan and Ohio State because of the prominence of the Big 10 and probably would give the nod to the Buckeyes, because they would have beaten Michigan head to head. And look at the remaining contenders for the fourth spot - a powerful Michigan team that lost only to Ohio State; a Louisville team that would have been undefeated had it not lost a heartbreaker to Clemson in the last minute; a Baylor team with one loss to a quality Oklahoma team on the road; and West Virginia, which lost only its season finale to Baylor (a head-to-head matchup loss almost certainly would eliminate WVU).

So whom would you pick? Michigan, which would put two Big 10 teams in the final four? Louisville? Baylor with a weaker schedule, but a team the committee might favor, as it would put another representative from a power conference in the playoffs?

It's impossible to figure out whom the committee would pick from these three. One thing that's abundantly clear is that the four-team playoff system stinks. If the system expanded to eight teams, both of the scenarios I described would be avoided.

What would be the downside? One more week of football, which would hardly put a serious dent in the study time of these scholar-athletes. So, if we are going to have a playoff, let's make it as fair as possible and expand to eight!

@GovEdRendell