Jerardi: Why Villanova almost certainly will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament

BARRING SOMETHING very unusual in the final weeks of the regular season, Villanova appears to have wrapped up the East's No.1 seed for the NCAA Tournament. Unlike last season, when North Carolina was always a threat for that spot and other teams in the region were lurking, the Wildcats are way out in front an undistinguished Eastern field.

Other potential No.1 or No.2 seeds such as Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky and Arizona are not in the region. Technically, a team from another region could pass Villanova in the overall seed order and be moved east, but I don't think that likely. UNC, with ugly losses at Georgia Tech and Miami, is not close to the Wildcats in the pecking order at the moment.

I had no major problems with the top-two seed lines last year, but did not understand the sites for Villanova and Xavier except as a political statement in favor of state universities from football conferences. It looked as if the committee was trying to protect UNC and Kansas against a potential homecourt disadvantage in a regional final, if the seeds held.

The accepted criteria had been that if you were at or near the top of the seed list, you were kept as close to home as possible. That changed last year when No.2 seeds Villanova and Xavier were not placed in regional sites closest to home.

Villanova was sent to Louisville for the regional and Xavier to Philadelphia. "X" did not make it out of the second round, so that became a moot point. 'Nova ended up playing Kansas in the 'Ville instead of UNC in Philly. Turned out rather nicely in the end, but it has never felt right to me.

When I asked Dan Gavitt, who runs the NCAA Tournament, about it the Friday night of the Philly regional, he told me that they were not bound by the generally accepted criteria. Obviously.

Be interesting to see what might happen this year if Kansas, which certainly looks like No.1 in the Midwest with the regional in Kansas City, somehow drops to a No.2. Will the committee take KU out of its natural region to protect, for sake of argument, Gonzaga, if the Zags lose their grip on No.1 in the West and end up No.1 in the Midwest?

Until the Selection Sunday curveball, just about everybody had Villanova on a Brooklyn/South Philly route to Houston. The university scheduled only three games at the Wells Fargo Center for that very reason, so it cost them some regular-season ticket money and left many of their fans scrambling to dump regional tickets to the WFC. (Four games in one building are considered a home court and teams can't play NCAA games on home courts).

As we hit February, I think we can safely say that Villanova's route to Phoenix will be through Buffalo and New York (Madison Square Garden).

I watch some of the top teams in November, December and January, but find I often get confused by what I see. I want to see teams in February when their true NCAA potential is revealed, so the DVR will be working overtime in the next few weeks.

I do not see any overwhelming teams out there, so I think Villanova is live again. We will all know more by mid-March, but, after that second-half performance against Virginia, why not 'Nova?

The Cavs took away what has been the 'Cats' hidden strength for two seasons running. They would not let them get to the rim, holding them to only 25 percent shooting on twos in the first half. They were daring the 'Cats to shoot threes. They missed nine of 10 in the first half before going 6-for-6 in the second half when a single miss almost certainly loses the game.

That shooting, which was greatly helped by the decision to go small (big man Darryl Reynolds got only five second-half minutes), opened up the lane just enough for 'Nova to go 7-for-12 on twos in the final 20 minutes. It was no coincidence that the winning points came on a tap at the buzzer.

And it should not have been a shock that Villanova won. In a 55-possession game, you have to be great to overcome a double-digit second-half deficit. In that second half, Villanova, a great team for four seasons now, was great again.

Mark Hollis, the Michigan State athletic director and the chairman of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, is taking a two-week tour of the country to see games live in advance of the committee's final deliberations. He will have the NCAA trophy during his journey and plans to be in Philly on Feb. 21 and 22. He definitely will see Butler at Villanova on the 22nd. His original itinerary had him going to see Rhode Island play at La Salle on the 21st. Since that plan, La Salle, loser of three straight, has gone from a maybe at-large to an extreme longshot.

Marcus Keene, a 5-9 guard, is putting up crazy numbers for Keno Davis' fire-at-will Central Michigan offense. He has scoring games of 50, 44, 41 and 40 and, going into Tuesday night's game against Buffalo, is averaging 30.3 points. A cool 53.3 percent of the Chippewas' shots come from the arc. Alas, defense is optional, Central Michigan checking in at 335th in defensive efficiency.

* Is there anything better than Gus Johnson calling a basketball game? Maybe Bill Walton on color, but that's it.

Gus was in great form Sunday for the Villanova-Virginia game, topping it off by inventing a wild nickname on the spot for Donte DiVincenzo after his game-winner. I think I heard Gus calling him "The Big Ragu." Tremendous.

* There are only four teams in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency, a great predictor for NCAA success — Gonzaga, Virginia, Kentucky and West Virginia. Villanova (third offense, 21st defense) is just beyond the benchmark, with plenty of time to get there.

* The five teams with the best shooting percentages (UCLA, Creighton, Utah, Florida Gulf Coast and Gonzaga) are a combined 94-18.

* Wichita State's Gregg Marhsall has to be one of the top 10 coaches in America. A season after losing the super backcourt of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, the Shockers are 19-4. Starting with the 2009-10 season, Wichita is 221-52.

* A seven-man rotation is not an issue if your team does not foul. Villanova has had only two foul-outs all season and commits only 14.4 fouls per game, second fewest in the country.

* The Catholic university point guard ACL curse continues. Sunday against St. John's, Xavier's Edmond Sumner tore his ACL and is out for the season. Shavar Newkirk (Saint Joseph's) and Maurice Watson (Creighton) each suffered the same injury this conference season.