'Nova vs. UNC has ingredients of a classic

HOUSTON - If you are going to win a national championship, you may as well finish off what has been a glorious run of impossibly brilliant basketball against one of the marquee names in the sport, a university that has been so good for so long that it has played in a Final Four each of the last eight decades.

Villanova's players will not be playing the tradition of North Carolina basketball Monday night at NRG Stadium, but they will be facing a very skilled team that plays a style completely different than their own.

The seniors who will start played three years ago in a mostly forgettable 8/9 NCAA Tournament game in Kansas City. It is a testament to them and the players they have led to this moment that the two teams playing the best right now will decide a champion.

So which style prevails? Which team wins?

We are talking the country's first (UNC) and second ('Nova) most efficient offenses.

The Tar Heels put up numbers by rushing the ball down the court after makes or misses and playing through their big, deep, talented, experienced and at times overwhelming front line. Three-pointers are more of an afterthought.

The Wildcats put up their numbers with isolations, post-ups, live-ball turnovers leading to breaks, threes, and interchangeable personnel that is very difficult to keep from getting into the lane and finishing at the rim.

The three-point math could work in Villanova's favor, especially if they stay hot from the arc and Carolina has one of the very bad shooting nights it often had this season.

The 'Cats are so hot, they not only are pummeling opponents; they are even beating venues. This stadium was a notoriously bad shooting joint over 12 NCAA games since 2008. Saturday night, the other three teams shot 18-for-69 (26.1 percent) from three. The Wildcats shot 11-for-18 (61.1 percent).

The 'Nova shooting continues a tournament-long trend. Their numbers are actually absurd - 58.3 percent overall, 49 percent from three, 63.6 percent from two and 82.4 percent from the foul line while outscoring teams by 24.2 points per game.

The offense has been so good it has overshadowed how good the 'Cats have been playing defense, so good that they are all the way up to sixth in defensive efficiency. This will be the ultimate defensive test against an offense and a system that puts pressure on defenses like no other.

"You've got to practice it," Villanova associate head coach Baker Dunleavy said of Carolina's legendary fastbreak offense. "Even after a made basket, they have a way of getting the ball out of the basket. There's an art to it."

UNC's missed shots are invitations for their bigs. They retrieve nearly 41 percent of their misses, putting giant heat on the 'Cats to gang rebound.

"There's not much we can do in one day to teach rebounding," Dunleavy said. "It's going to come down to a lot of toughness, want to and going after the ball."

That, of course, is the perfect description for Jay Wright's Villanova teams. They almost always want it more than the other team.

"We are going to use our technique against their size, try not to let them see space," Villanova point guard Ryan Arcidiacono said. "It's pretty difficult to guard us because we're undersized, so it works both ways."

That is going to be Carolina's issue. How do they guard Villanova's quickness?

Carolina's defense has been good, not great, in this tournament. The Tar Heels' offense has been so sharp they have just buried everybody, scoring 83, 85, 101, 88 and 83. But the only top 20 defense they have seen was Syracuse's.

Over 40 minutes, this may not matter, but Villanova has the better defense. Keep that in mind if it comes down to the end like the Kansas game, when stops and free throws become maybe even more important than baskets.

Josh Hart exploded in the first half Saturday for Villanova, but you never really know from game to game who might go off. Brice Johnson, who is averaging 20 points and 9.6 rebounds while shooting 61.4 percent in the tournament, is the Carolina offensive constant, the toughest big man cover around.

North Carolina began its season in the Veterans Classic at Navy against Temple on Nov. 13. The Owls hung for a half, but got overwhelmed in the second. Carolina will end its season against a Villanova team that has dominated the city for a decade now, owned the new Big East so far and validated everything about its gaudy three-year record with this flying finish.

If you are into such things and ignore first-round walkovers, Villanova has had clearly the harder path to the championship game, beating teams that were first, sixth, 10th and 27th on the selection committee's "S" curve they use to seed the tournament. UNC has beaten teams that were 17th, 22nd, 33rd and 39th.

So?

Well, I know what I have seen these last five games from Villanova. I don't remember watching a better stretch of basketball against so many quality opponents. Anybody who loves the game has to appreciate the caliber of play and the commitment.

I also know how good Carolina is. I was there that night at Navy when the Heels were playing without point guard Marcus Paige. They were preseason No. 1 for a reason. They have lost six times all season by a combined 22 points. They are winning their NCAA games by 16.2 points per.

Forget team of destiny, Cinderella and all that nonsense. Villanova is here because it is beautifully coached with excellent players, including one-time players of the year in Washington (Kris Jenkins) and Chicago (Jalen Brunson) as well as juniors and seniors who have been part of a 96-13 record.

My man Ken Pomeroy's website (kenpom.com) has been all over this Villanova run from the start, picking them to beat Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma. I was already all in on the 'Cats, but when I visited the website early Sunday morning, I was looking for a little validation from the numbers that can take you beyond what you see into a new realm of understanding the game.

And there it was: Villanova 77-North Carolina 76.