Better breed of 'Cats awaits OU in rematch

IT'S QUITE a long way from Honolulu to Houston and from Dec. 7 to April 2. That day in December, Oklahoma beat Villanova, 78-55. It could be a matchup problem as the Sooners are the rare team that can trot out a guard line as good as the Wildcats' and they have a genuine college superstar in Buddy Hield. More likely, it was just circumstance on Pearl Harbor Day and Saturday's Final Four game will play out much differently.

OU led that game by 15-3 after 5 minutes. The Wildcats came back to tie it at 26 in the first half, but then got overwhelmed in the second half, 46-29.

The key stat was the three-point shooting. The Sooners went 14-for-28; the Wildcats 4-for-32. That is not going to happen again.

The Sooners are a great three-point-shooting team with a transcendent scorer/shooter. Hield had 37 points in Saturday's regional final win over Oregon. He has had games of 30, 30, 33, 34, 31, 30, 32, 33, 39, 36 - and 46 in the game of the year, the three-overtime classic 109-106 loss at Kansas on Jan. 4.

As a team, OU has made 376 threes and shoots 42.8 percent from the arc, second nationally. Hield, who averages 25.4 points, shoots 50.4 percent overall, 46.5 percent from the arc and 88 percent from the foul line, and has made an insane 146 threes. Jordan Woodard, the second-leading scorer (13.0), shoots 45.9 percent from the arc, with 78 made threes. Isaiah Cousins, the third-leading scorer (12.8), shoots 42 percent from the arc, with 63 threes.

Big man Ryan Spangler is the glue guy and fourth double-digit scorer (10.3). Khadeem Lattin, the grandson of 1966 Final Four Texas Western hero David Lattin, is the rim protector with 77 blocked shots.

The Sooners are 331st nationally in bench minutes, so it really is about their starting five. The Wildcats, with an eight-man rotation, are the deeper team. More important, three 'Nova players who were barely factors on Dec. 7 are now major contributors.

Kris Jenkins has been an offensive revelation in the final weeks of the season and in this tournament. He was not remotely that player then. Mikal Bridges was playing his eighth college game. He has become a defensive stopper and a basketball force. Darryl Reynolds had three fouls and no points on Dec. 7. He has become a major threat down the stretch.

Oklahoma got its second wind in this tournament after staggering a bit at the end of the regular season; again playing the kind of dominating basketball that got them to 12-0 before that three-OT game at Allen Field House.

Villanova has the same core that lost so decisively almost four months ago, but it is a dramatically different and better team now. Seniors Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu were brilliant in Saturday's regional final win over Kansas. Arch made the biggest shot, the late three that gave the Wildcats the lead for good and the no-risk/high-reward steal that clinched it when a foul would not hurt and a turnover meant the Final Four. Ochefu made one strong move after another around the rim, outplaying the more-touted Kansas bigs.

Josh Hart is one of America's best two-way players who can beat you off the bounce and from the arc, all while locking up your best player. Jalen Brunson is always the coolest guy in the gym. Phil Booth knows how to play and plays without fear.

If you want to play the game of who beat who, Kansas beat Oklahoma twice while OU beat 'Nova and 'Nova beat KU. Again, could be matchups, but more likely circumstance.

Bottom line, it is about how you are playing on the first Saturday in April. Villanova is playing as well it has ever played under Jay Wright, capable of outscoring teams, which may be what it is going to take to beat Oklahoma, and equally capable of defending teams so well that even scoring only 64 like it did against Kansas is enough.

The myth of Villanova not being able to win games when it doesn't shoot well from three should finally disappear. Other than the two critical late threes by Arch and Hart, they hardly made anything against KU, finishing just 4-for-18 from the arc. But as they have been all season, they were great on twos (17-for-34) and from the free-throw line (18-for-19). The 'Cats shoot 56.8 percent on twos, third nationally, and 78.4 percent from the line, second in the country.

The 'Cats played a lot of zone against Kansas. That seems less likely against a team with all those shooters. Who will guard Hield, probably a little Hart, a little Booth, maybe a lot of Bridges? Hield is a testament to the power of hard work. The Freeport, Grand Bahamas native has scored 2,282 points after averaging just 7.8 points as a freshman. It was 16.5 points as a sophomore and 17.4 last season.

Hield will be the best player on the floor. Despite that early game, Villanova may very well have the better team.

Ken Pomeroy's great analytical website (kenpom.com) accounts for how teams change during the course of a season. The site, which informed many of my first-round 29-3 bracket decisions, also predicts upcoming games. It had Villanova beating Kansas, 74-73, last Saturday. It has Villanova beating Oklahoma, 75-72, this Saturday.

@DickJerardi