Too early to come to many NCAA basketball conclusions

NOW THAT we have just gotten beyond the midway point of the regular season, what exactly do we know that we did not know in November?

There is no team remotely as good as Kentucky was last season, but we probably knew that in November. Most of the country's best teams are in exactly the same section of the country where we thought them to be 2 months ago. Trace a line from Louisville to Bloomington, north to Ann Arbor. The teams that play there have combined for three losses, one each, going into Tuesday night's games. If you said when the season began, or now, that Louisville, Indiana and Michigan could make up 75 percent of the Final Four in Atlanta, I would not argue the point.

When the season began, that line also touched Lexington, but thinking Kentucky would be anything close to last season was always unrealistic and now just seems stupid.

Creighton, Butler and Gonzaga have Final Four-caliber offenses, but their defenses probably are not going to be good enough to win those four games in March to get to April. Still, I would not dismiss any of them having a long run at this point.

It is 2 long, hard months to Selection Sunday (March 17), much too early for conclusions. Impressions certainly matter, but there is no way to know enough until you see teams on the road against quality competition. That tells you who is serious and who is just pretending.

Locally, Temple remains in the projected field, but the Owls are no lock. They really need to start shooting better, win the games they are supposed to win and get a few on the road that will play well with the selection committee.

Villanova, La Salle and Saint Joseph's all look about the same to me. I would estimate each of them is about 10 spots away from serious at-large consideration, but they all have time and opportunity. What they do with it is on them.

I think Villanova has slightly overachieved in relation to its talent and experience. La Salle is about where I expected. St. Joe's is a bit of a harder case.

When the Hawks were picked to win the Atlantic 10, I saw that as bad news. I thought they looked similar to a half dozen other league teams, not better or worse. But that prediction ratcheted up expectations for a season where the A-10 was going to be deeper than at any time in memory.

I think the Hawks have good, not great talent. There are no surefire NBA players on the roster. They obviously are not very deep. The suspensions have not helped that issue.

I do think they gave away the game at Villanova, but the Wildcats were tough enough to grab it. I can't really explain losing to Fairfield at home.

But I thought they played really well against Butler. They just happened to be playing against a very good team that was a little better on the night.

Coach Phil Martelli took offense to somebody using the word "underachieving" in describing his team. The term is true in relation to that prediction. It is wrong in relation to the actual ability of the players.

Offense may be winning all those NFL games, but defense still wins in college hoops. No. 1 Louisville is playing defense at historic levels.

In 2010-11, Rick Pitino's team allowed teams to score just .879 points per possession, fourth best nationally. Last season, the Cardinals allowed just .84 PPP, best in the country and enough to get a truly wretched offensive team to the Final Four. This season's defensive numbers are ridiculous as the 'Ville has improved again, all the way to just .799 PPP, first by daylight at that track.

To put the PPP numbers in perspective, understand that Louisville averages 69 possessions per game and forces nearly 20 turnovers so 29 percent of its defensive possessions do not even result in a shot.

A 12-minute second-half blitz at UConn Monday was a perfect illustration of what goes down when this team turns up the heat - in 20 possessions, the Huskies were 2-for-13 and had seven turnovers. It was UConn 36-28 when it started, Louisville 60-44 when it ended, a 32-8 masterpiece in those 12 minutes.

That North Carolina State was picked to win the ACC for the first time since 1974-75, David Thompson's senior year?

* That Kentucky freshman Nerlens Noel had one of the lines of the season when his team lost at home to Texas A & M last Saturday - 15 points, 11 rebounds, seven blocks, five assists and four steals?

* That Herb Magee is 50 from 1,000? Think about 1,000 in these terms - 20 wins per season for 50 seasons. Unimaginable. But the Philly U coach is going to do it.

* That Duke senior big man Mason Plumlee (17.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 62.1 percent shooting), was just a 50.5 percent free-throw shooter entering the season. This season, he is shooting 65 percent from the line.

The late Rick Majerus won a lot of big games at Utah, but he just could not beat Kentucky in the NCAA. I was courtside for three of the NCAA losses, including the 1998 championship game. The Utes always lost for no other reason than UK had better players. It did not stop Majerus from leaving us with one of his great lines.

"When I die, they might as well bury me at the finish line at Churchill Downs so they can run over me one more time."