Murphy: Eagles' future depends on surrounding Wentz with talent

The final price tag for Carson Wentz is rather remarkable when you look at it from the big picture:

Sam Bradford, Byron Maxwell, Kiko Alonso, a first-round selection in 2017, a second-round selection in 2018, a third-round selection in 2016 and $10.3 million in dead salary-cap space (for the Bradford and Maxwell contracts). If you figure that the value of the two other first-round picks involved in the maneuvering cancels each other out (the 2017 first-rounder they acquired from the Vikings for Bradford, and the opportunity cost of the No. 15 pick in the 2016 draft, which ultimately became Wentz), you're essentially looking at a six-for-one swap and a $10.3 million cash payment. Oh, and they netted a fourth-rounder for their troubles.

After that, it is open to interpretation. One perspective: How good does Wentz have to be to equal Marcus Smith, Eric Rowe and Josh Huff? Another perspective: How good does Wentz have to be to equal Fletcher Cox, Jordan Matthews and Bennie Logan? Or Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy? Or Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown and Brian Westbrook?

This wasn't meant as a thought experiment, but it's an interesting one, particularly when you look back at that 2002 draft. The Eagles have made it clear that they are attempting to follow the blueprint that got them to the Super Bowl in 2004. They had a franchise quarterback in Donovan McNabb and a West Coast play-caller in Andy Reid. But would they have made it to the championship game if drafting McNabb had cost them Sheppard, Brown and Westbrook? Or even two of the three? On the flip side, how would fate have unfolded had they passed on the opportunity for McNabb to draft Freddie Mitchell, Quinton Caver and Derrick Burgess?

All of this involves plenty of over-simplification and cherry-picking. It isn't meant to replicate a parallel universe. Rather, it's meant to underscore the NFL truism that will determine whether Wentz and Doug Pederson can take the Eagles where they want to go. While the quarterback position is by far the most important in team sports, the fate of whoever lines up under center is very much intertwined with his organization's ability to draft the rest of the roster.

The closer Wentz comes to reaching his potential, the more margin for error his bosses will have. Yet when we look back on this era five to ten years from now, there is a good chance we'll be focusing as much on players like Isaac Seumalo, Nelson Agholor and Jordan Hicks as Wentz himself. For better, or for worse.

That is to say, the real work for Howie Roseman and his personnel department has only just begun. Roseman gave a nod to this after the Eagles unveiled their final round of cuts in advance of Saturday's 4 p.m. deadline; it wasn't a surprise that still standing were five 2016 draft picks, including fifth-rounders Wendell Smallwood and Halapoulivaati Vaitai and seventh-rounder Jalen Mills, and four undrafted free agents.

"We feel like we've got to find ways to improve this football team in an unconventional manner," Roseman said after the deadline. "When you look at the percentage of rosters taken up by undrafted free agents, outside of first-round picks, I think it's the highest percentage of players on rosters. For us, we felt like we needed to throw darts at that pool of guys that we liked."

The important thing, though, is what we still don't know: Are these guys any good?

The thing about bad draft picks is their effects are exponential. Maybe the easiest way to understand this is to look at a good draft pick. When the Eagles re-signed 2012 first-rounder Fletcher Cox this summer, the deal prompted the requisite gawking at the salary figures. But any debate over the propriety of the contract ignores the NFL's economic reality: The Eagles had no choice. Either Cox was going to be their defensive tackle at an exorbitant price tag, or they were going to start over at the position. That's because long-term solutions at defensive tackle rarely make it to free agency. This offseason, only three defensive tackles younger than the age of 28 reached free agency and received guaranteed money, and only two of them landed more than $9 million guaranteed. The previous offseason, there were no such players. In 2014, there was one. In 2013, there were none. This wasn't a choice between paying "X" dollars to Cox or "X" dollars to someone else. It was a choice between paying "X" dollars to Cox or spending that money at another position. Except, every other position features similar economics. Which is why the Eagles have yet to replace DeSean Jackson or Maclin. The three best receivers on the market this offseason were Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Travis Benjamin.

If the Eagles had not hit on Cox, their options would have been outbidding the Dolphins and signing Ndamukong Suh to a contract that averaged a $21 million cap hit per year for four years, or patching things together with an array of lesser talents.

It can work, provided you have drafted well elsewhere. But that does not detract from the point we're trying to make: Each draft class creates a ripple whose energy carries well beyond those initial four- or five-year contracts. And when you look back at the Eagles' performance in the cycle, it's easy to see why they are now in full rebuilding mode.

For a different view of the same conundrum, consider the two players drafted after Cox, both of whom have agreed to new contracts with the Eagles in the last year. Mychal Kendricks has yet to even validate himself as a wise draft pick, let alone a player worthy of a contract extension. Say what you will about his athleticism, he isn't Bobby Wagner or Lavonte David, both of whom were selected shortly after the Eagles selected Kendricks with a second-rounder in 2012. Vinny Curry, meanwhile, remains more potential than actuality. But when the Eagles re-signed both players to extensions, it was another example of a team having to play the cards it drafted. Teams that draft players like David and Wagner rarely let them get to free agency. Same goes for Allen Robinson, who was still on the board when the Eagles selected Matthews.

When you talk about the draft, those kinds of decisions might end up shaping the identities of franchises even more than the busts. The team that drafts Earl Thomas becomes a certain type of team. The team that drafts Brandon Graham becomes a different type of team. Coaching matters. Scheme matters. But a front office still has to identify the talent that meshes with those two factors. For the Eagles moving forward, that is priority No. 1.

To give you some idea of the difficulty of projecting the draft this far out, consider that at this time last year ESPN's Todd McShay had quarterbacks Connor Cook, Cardale Jones and Christian Hackenberg all ranked among his top 30 prospects. That list did not include Carson Wentz.

Hackenberg went at No. 51, Cook at No. 100, and Jones at No. 139.

We'll also know a lot more about the Eagles' positional needs after this season, but two groups sure to be near the top of the list are the offensive and defensive lines. The No. 1 priority in the coming years will be drafting and developing a replacement for left tackle Jason Peters, who is 34 years old and coming off a season in which he was plagued by a nagging back injury. On the offensive line, careers don't get much longer than the one Peters has already produced. Among the top draft eligible tackles are Alabama's Cam Robinson, Notre Dame's Mike McGlinchey, and Florida State's Roderick Johnson.

The defensive line might not seem like an obvious concern, but Bennie Logan can become a free agent after this season and are currently scheduled to pay $24.5 million to their defensive ends, not to mention plus $9.4 million to fellow defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. Cutting Barwin, who at 29 years old is converting to linebacker this season, would save the team close to $8 million. However next season shakes out, the Eagles need an injection of youthful talent up front. It's shaping up to be a good draft for that kind of thing. McShay's preseason Top 32 includued nine defensive linemen. Some names to keep your eye on this college season: Myles Garrett (Texas A&M), Jonathan Allen (Alabama), Malik McDowell (Michigan State), Derek Barnett (Tennessee), Eddie Vanderdoes (UCLA), Charles Harris (Missouri), Carl Lawson (Auburn), Dawaune Smoot (Illinois), Charles Walker (Oklahoma), Caleb Brantley (Florida).

Lastly, though certainly not leastly, we have the ongoing void at cornerback, where the Eagles have not had a draft pick start more than six games since Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard combined for 159 starts from 2002 through 2009. In fact, the six cornerbacks the Eagles have selected in the first four rounds of the draft since 2002 have combined for 13 starts with the team, and five of those came via Eric Rowe last year (The others: Brandon Boykin 6, Trevard Lindley 1, with Matt Ware, Jack Ikegwuono and Curtis Marsh combining to play 53 games total). Some names: Desmond King (Iowa), Teez Tabor (Flordia), Sidney Jones (Washington), Jourdan Lewis (Michigan), Cordrea Tankersley (Clemson), Adoree Jackson (USC), Marlon Humphrey (Alabama), Jordan Thomas (Oklahoma).

@ByDavidMurphy

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