Figuring the Chase Utley factor

IN THE BOTTOM of the first inning, Chase Utley stepped to the plate and hit a home run. It was the 14th time he had done so this season, good enough for fourth among major league second basemen. If anybody needed a reminder that the 34-year-old veteran was still one of baseball's best players at his position, here it was. Still, as he trotted around the bases to the hearty approval of the Citizens Bank Park crowd, you couldn't shake the feeling it was the beginning of another egregious miscalculation by a Phillies organization struggling to find the path toward a better tomorrow.

Make no mistake. Utley is the best second baseman in franchise history, a player you wish more athletes would emulate: His work ethic is tireless, his focus unrelenting, his determination rivaled by few. And as Ruben Amaro Jr. said to the media before last night's 9-2 loss to the Giants, the guy can still hit.

After a 4-year dip in production, Utley's power numbers are back close to where they were in his prime: 10.4 percent of his plate appearances ending in extra-base hits, compared with 8.3 percent from 2009-12, a home run every 21.9 at-bats, compared with 24.6 over the previous four seasons. If every veteran member of the Phillies roster was a free agent at season's end, Utley would be your first choice to sign, and the 3-year contract extension worth between $12 and $15 million annually that the club is mulling would look like fair price.

But the task of transitioning an organization from one era to the next is not something that can be completed on a transaction-to-transaction basis. The decision-making process includes all of the decisions that have already been made. And the decisions that Amaro and Co. have made have created a lineup that will be nearly impossible to improve if Utley returns to it.

For any of this to make any sense, you must acknowledge that the lineup in question needs to get better. The Phillies entered last night averaging 3.82 runs per game, third fewest in the National League. Their .309 on-base percentage ranked 11th. Their .706 OPS ranked eighth. You also need to acknowledge that Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Domonic Brown are all locks to be in the lineup in 2014, and that Ben Revere will likely join them.

You must admit that 20-year-old prospect Maikel Franco is unlikely to win the third baseman's job in spring training, and that 23-year-old Cody Asche is the top internal candidate to do so. If you argue any of these points, you do so against the odds.

With Howard, Rollins, Brown and Revere penciled into the lineup, the Phillies have four positions where they can possibly improve: second base, third base, rightfield, catcher. Re-sign Utley, and you are left with three such positions. In a different free-agent market, that might not be a problem. But the hitters who are available at the positions where the Phillies can fit them all have something in common, not just with each other, but with Howard and Utley and Revere and Brown. They all hit lefthanded.

Outfield: Shin-Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, all lefties.

Catcher: Brian McCann and A.J. Pierzynski, both lefties.

Third base: Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta can play third, but he is facing a 50-game suspension in the Biogenesis affair. After him, Michael Young is probably the most viable option (unless you are a big fan of Kevin Youkilis or Juan Uribe). Nobody else is a potential regular, regardless of how hard you squint.

The top righthanded bat who could be available is Hunter Pence, but the Phillies already tried that experiment. Besides, all indications point to the Giants making an aggressive attempt to re-sign him. Beyond Pence, the level of risk spikes: Carlos Beltran will be 37 years old. Mike Morse has missed significant time with injury the last two seasons and has posted a .276/.316/.462 battling line that isn't all that different from the one John Mayberry Jr. has posted this season (.261/.316/.439). Nelson Cruz, who is hitting .271/.334/.501 with 24 home runs for the Rangers in his 33-year-old season, might be an option, but he is also caught up in the Biogenesis mess. The best value proposition might end up being Corey Hart, who posted three straight 26-plus home run and .841-plus OPS seasons from 2010-12 before suffering a knee injury that will sideline him for all of this season. He'll be 32 years old.

By re-signing Utley, the Phillies are essentially precluding themselves from adding any of the hitters who have a decent chance of upgrading this putrid lineup. Don't think so? Take out a piece of paper and try to draw up a batting order, and remember that Rollins has an OPS under .650 against lefthanded pitching over the last 3 years:

1. Revere CF (lefty)

2. Utley 2B (lefty)

3. _____________

4. Brown RF (lefty)

5. Howard 1B (lefty)

6. _____________

7. Rollins SS (switch)

8. Asche 3B (lefty)

"It's awfully lefthanded," Amaro said an hour after the nonwaiver trade deadline passed at 4 p.m. yesterday. "That's one of the things that we were targeting in this trade deadline, and we'll continue to do that: get some righthanded production. I'd rather be lefthanded than righthanded, but we can use some balance."

Keep in mind that never in the history of the National League has a team finished a season with six lefthanded hitters at 400 or more plate appearances. Since integration, only two teams have finished with five. There's a reason for that. Balance matters.

The question isn't:

Utley >X, where X is the next best second base option.

It's:

Utley + Y >X + Z, where Y is the best free-agent hitter who happens to be righthanded and Z is the best free-agent hitter overall.

That's probably not legal math, but the point remains. Utley is better than Omar Infante, but is the combination of Utley and Hart better than the combination of Infante and Choo? And if you concede that McCann and Pierzynski are unlikely options behind the plate (not just because of their lefthandedness), then you are left with Carlos Ruiz or Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Which leaves you with the very real possibility that the only change in the current cast of characters occurs in rightfield, which leaves you with one final question to answer:

Is this lineup really only a Corey Hart or a Nelson Cruz away from respectability?

Blog: ph.ly/HighCheese