Will Kelly succeed or join ranks of college coaches who flopped in NFL?

PRESEASON GAMES are usually the best cure for insomnia known to man. They are about as exciting to watch as congressional hearings on C-Span (which are more readily available and work almost as well - I have to admit that I have actually fallen asleep watching myself testifying).

But this year is different for Eagles fans, because we are fascinated by the prospect of getting our first look at Chip Kelly's read-option offense and 3-4 defense. Which quarterback will run it best? Will Trent Cole and Brandon Graham be able to convert to linebacker? Will our secondary be able to cover anyone? Will anybody block for Riley Cooper? Questions abound, but the biggest question our fans have is the million-dollar one - can Chip Kelly make the successful transition from winning college coach to winning NFL coach? Will the system and philosophy he used to make the multicolored Oregon Ducks big winners play as well in the hard-nosed NFC East? Will Chip be Jim Harbaugh or Steve Spurrier? Barry Switzer or Nick Saban? Of course, only time will tell, and even though there are instances of successful college coaches bombing out in the pros, I believe Chip will turn out to be most like Jimmy Johnson, and that will be just fine, thank you. Let's take a look at the fate of some college hotshots.

Jim Harbaugh. After 7 very good years as a college head coach, the last 4 at Stanford, he took over the San Francisco 49ers, who were 6-10 the year before, and led them to a 13-3 season in 2011, and an 11-4-1 record and a trip to the Super Bowl in 2012.

Tom Coughlin. After 3 very good years at Boston College, he has had an incredible 17-year run as an NFL head coach. He spent his first eight seasons in Jacksonville, where he took over a moribund Jaguars franchise, and, in his second year, led it to the AFC Championship Game. And of course, as much as it pains me to say it, he has led the hated Giants to two impressive Super Bowl wins in his 9 years in North Jersey.

Barry Switzer. He had a different challenge taking over as head coach of the Cowboys the year after they had won the Super Bowl, and this after 16 years as the head coach at Oklahoma, where his Sooners teams compiled a 157-29-4 record. Like Coughlin, he brought nothing but pain to Birds fans, because of his successful transition and a Super Bowl for "America's Team" (gag) in his second season.

Steve Spurrier. After 12 years as the fabulously successful coach of the Florida Gators, during which time they were 122-27-1, a perennial powerhouse, and national champions in 1996, he was lured away by Daniel Snyder's money to coach the Washington Redskins. It was an outright disaster! In a turn of events that might make some Birds fans nervous about Chip Kelly's plan, Spurrier's innovative, high-powered college offense was a complete bust in the NFL, as the Skins went 12-20 in 2 years, and Spurrier quickly headed back to college. Most Eagles fans fondly remember the clip of Spurrier flapping his lips in a state of sheer frustration, which was played in slow motion over and over on TV.

Lou Holtz. A very good college coach at North Carolina State, Holtz decided to try his hand with the pros in 1976 and undertook the task of reviving the woeful Jets, who were 3-11 the year before. He went 3-11 in his first year, quit and headed back to college to coach Arkansas, then Notre Dame. That seems to have worked out pretty well for him.

Dennis Erickson. The coach of the iconic Miami Hurricanes for 6 years, Erickson led the 'Canes to a 63-9 record and two national championships. He then spent 6 years as a head coach in the NFL with the Seahawks and 49ers, during which time his teams went 40-56!

Nick Saban. Perhaps the most successful college coach in the game today, Saban has been the head honcho at Michigan State, LSU and, of course, Alabama. His record in 18 seasons as a college coach is 159-55-1, with three BCS championships and one No. 2 finish. In what was perhaps the most scrutinized attempt at making the jump, he took a shot at the NFL for 2 years with the Miami Dolphins and went 15-17, causing him to retreat back to the friendly confines of the NCAA.

Does the weight of this evidence make it more likely that Chip will fail, too, and scurry back to academia?

Not necessarily! Remember I mentioned Jimmy Johnson? I believe Chip might just follow in his footsteps. Jimmy started out in 1989 with the Cowboys and to say he was not an immediate success would not be an exaggeration. The Cowboys went 1-15 and 7-9 his first 2 years, but in his third year, they went 11-5 and then won two Super Bowls back to back in his fourth and fifth years at the helm. Can Chip duplicate that? We'll see, but let's give him a little time, Eagles fans. Looking at the schedule, I think all we can reasonably expect is a six- or seven-win season. Eight would be great, and anything more than that should be taken as conclusive evidence that a parade down Broad Street is imminent.

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