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Phillies unlikely to close the deal again

In Charlie Manuel's previous eight seasons as manager, the Phillies have undeniably been a second-half team. They have played to a better percentage record after the all-star break in every one of those years.

Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. (H. Rumph Jr/AP)
Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. (H. Rumph Jr/AP)Read more

In Charlie Manuel's previous eight seasons as manager, the Phillies have undeniably been a second-half team. They have played to a better percentage record after the all-star break in every one of those years.

Figuring out whether this is something more than coincidence, an anomaly that has happened eight straight times, isn't easy because every season spins on its own axis and those years have seen teams that have ranged from a mediocre 81 wins to a franchise-record 102 wins.

But, there it is. Manuel's teams before this season have played .520 baseball before the break and .610 baseball after it. That 90-point increase was vital to everything the Phils accomplished in their five-season playoff run and even in last season's attempt just to stay alive in the postseason race.

Those who would like to believe the best is yet to come for the Phillies this season - heaven forbid it has already taken place - hold onto that recent history like a talisman. The team arrived at the all-star break on Sunday with a 48-48 record, having won its final two games to reach level ground. If the Phillies could manage to add another 90 points to that .500 winning percentage, they would win somewhere in the neighborhood of 39 more games.

That could conceivably put them in the postseason conversation, or at least give them a louder voice at the table than they have now. In any case, it would make the rest of the season significantly more palatable and would make a good case, if history holds, for being a buyer instead of a seller at the July 31 trade deadline.

So, is that a reasonable expectation again? Will the Phillies throw a magic switch and become a different post-all-star break team for the ninth straight year? Is that the way the organization should bet?

Sadly, that's no, no, and no.

The Phillies of 2013 aren't capable of that again. They weren't capable of it even before centerfielder Ben Revere, hitting .390 since the middle of June, broke his foot on Saturday, and they certainly aren't capable of it after that foul ball removed their hottest hitter.

Honestly, once the Phils lost Roy Halladay and then Ryan Howard, their chances of contending went with them. It is too long between starts for Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and there are too many empty at-bats in the middle of the lineup.

For reference, let's look at the most recent season, when the Phillies were most similar to the team they are now. In 2012, the Phils were 37-50 (.425) before the all-star break and 44-31 (.587) after the break. They operated for most of the first half of last season without Howard and Chase Utley and with various other issues, some of which were resolved in the second half.

Howard, for instance, had just eight at-bats before the all-star break. After the break, he hit 14 home runs and batted in 56 runs. Who exactly is going to replace that production this time around? Darin Ruf? A lot to ask. Domonic Brown? Not based on the last month or so.

Looking closer at 2012, the offensive production wasn't even the biggest turnaround after the All-Star Game. The team batting average (.262-.246) and slugging percentage (.403-.395) both went down after the break. And yet the winning percentage climbed 162 points.

It was the pitching that really came around and made the late surge possible. The team earned run average went from 4.25 to 3.41. It was a sizable difference among the starters, going from 4.04 to 3.57. Kyle Kendrick was 2-8 with a 4.89 ERA before the break and 9-4 with a 2.87 ERA after it. Cliff Lee was 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA before the break and 5-4 with a 2.45 after it. Cole Hamels dropped his ERA by nearly a half-run and Roy Halladay won seven games after the break.

Lee could replicate that strong finish and Hamels figures to do better, but Halladay isn't going to win seven more games and Kendrick pitched to a 2.82 ERA in his first nine starts and has recorded a 4.64 ERA in his 10 starts since.

Then there is the bullpen. In 2012, the relievers gave up a batting average of .258 before the break and .200 after it. Jonathan Papelbon had perhaps the greatest improvement, going from a .236 average-against before the break to a .199 average-against afterward. (Earned run averages are misleading with relievers because of inherited runners, but not so much in the case of one-inning closers. Papelbon's ERA went from 3.34 to 1.67 in 2012, before and after the break.)

This season, Papelbon has been exceptional. He has had 25 save opportunities and converted 20 of those. Two of the blown saves turned into blown-save wins. His ERA is 2.33 and opponents are batting .207 against him. It is hard to see how much improvement could be made after the break.

In sum, finding the opportunities for a turnaround from the bullpen - this bullpen - is like looking for stray coins in the seat cushion. They could be there, but it probably won't be enough to buy a milkshake.

The front office knows all about these numbers and all about the likelihood of a rise from the ashes of the first half of the season. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and his staff also know that Manuel's teams have had an uncanny knack of doing the unlikely after the all-star break.

They say good things eventually must end. If that is true this season about the Phillies' comeback streak, then it is true about the most successful stretch in team history as well.

Bob Ford: Late Surges

The records for Charlie Manuel's Phillies before and after the all-star break:

YEAR   BEFORE   AFTER   

2013   48-48 (.500)   ?

2012   37-50 (.425)   44-31 (.587)

2011   57-34 (.626)   45-26 (.634)

2010   47-40 (.540)   50-25 (.667)

2009   48-38 (.558)   45-31 (.592)

2008   52-44 (.542)   40-26 (.606)

2007   44-44 (.500)   45-29 (.608)

2006   40-47 (.460)   45-30 (.600)

2005   45-44 (.506)   43-30 (.589)

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