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Photos: Associated Press
Governor-elect Chris Christie (center) speaks with Newark Mayor Cory Booker yesterday.
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John Baer: Hope, change, and the reality that 365 days brings

A YEAR AGO today, a nation fearing a crumbling economy and weary of war awoke to new expectations after electing Barack Obama on a premise of hope and a promise of change.

The youngish Illinois senator's victory, historic because of his color, emphatic because of its scope, offered more than a new administration. It offered a new beginning.

He won a majority of the popular vote (53 percent to John McCain's 46), a majority of the electoral vote (365-173) and a majority of states (28-22). More than 100 major newspapers endorsed him, 30-some endorsed McCain.

At a time when so many believed that the nation was headed in the wrong direction, so many also believed that Obama could alter its course.

On Election Night, he stood in Chicago's Grant Park and said, "If there is anyone out there who doubts that America is a place where anything is possible, who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer."

What a difference a year makes.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll shows that for the first time since Obama took office, a majority of Americans (52 percent) see the nation headed in the wrong direction again. This is much less pessimistic than just days before his election, when the number was 76 percent.

But a CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows a majority disapproving of Obama's handling of the economy, health care and Afghanistan. Clearly his promise and the hope he instilled are diminished.

Holding Rose Garden beer summits, fighting Fox News, offering donors White House bowling, movie nights and presidential golf outings don't help; they smack of politics as usual.

Democratic losses Tuesday in New Jersey, Virginia and Pennsylvania are spun as tales of anti-Obama Republican resurgence.

All this at a time of challenge on four major fronts: the still-worrisome economy, the ongoing war, health-care reform and government response to swine flu.

The danger for the president and the nation - beyond the politics of the moment, even beyond the impact of the issues - is that Americans sour on democracy, grow more cynical of government and doubt that those they elect can make any difference.

This is especially so for younger voters who helped Obama win the White House. As they see likely expansion of a war they voted to end, watch unemployment rise to 10 percent (it was 6.8 percent last November), witness partisan health-care battles and wonder what happened to change, there's a risk that they walk away.

"I am concerned about that," says Temple political-science associate professor Michael Hagen. "There's not much that's occurred to persuade them that politics has changed in the last year. I don't know what I'd tell them other than, this is a system set up to make sure nobody can take over and make wholesale changes fast."

Is America ungovernable? Is Obama trying too much? Or is it just that governing is a ton tougher than campaigning?

Notre Dame political-science professor Darren Davis specializes in political psychology and public opinion.

"There was and is no long leash for this president, more so than other presidents," Davis tells me, "partly because of polarization in Congress and the nation, partly because of race and vehement opposition to his election, and partly because of his age and perceived inexperience."

But Davis says that an "artificial high" accompanied Obama's election, and, while it's "absolutely correct" that enthusiasm and energy around his presidency has subsided, it's too soon for broad conclusions.

I guess. Except, I'd suggest, for this: Things aren't what a majority of Americans hoped for one year ago today; and "yes we can" is starting to sound more like a question than a rallying cry. *

Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.

For recent columns, go to

http://go.philly.com/baer.

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