Comcast is still a lot smaller than AT&T or Verizon, its cable subscribers have dropped the past 10 straight quarters, its phone and Internet growth is "slowing" - but it's still more profitable than its larger rivals, and it's been paying down debt as capital costs drop and cash flows expand, writes Gimme Credit analyst David Novosel in a report to investors today.

By those measures, we can understand why some bond investors have priced Comcast debt lately at not too much more than the successor Bells are paying,

But that's too cheap, Novosel argues. The NBC Universal deal will boost Comcast's debt load, and "we believe Comcast may make further forays into content to expand its business model. We question this strategy, since we have seen no evidence that combining distribution and content provides effective synergies or enhanced firm value. Not only does content divert Comcast from its core competency, but it introduces the opportunity for meaningful integration risk." He says Comcast doesn't deserve its recent cheap debt prices, and is recommending clients sell some recent issues.

Why does Novosel expect Comcast won't stop after buying NBCU? "That stems from comments by management about the value of content and how it might help Comcast become a more diversified company," Novosel told me this morning. "They did not explicitly state that Comcast would make more acquisitions," but it stands to reason, he figures, that if Comcast thinks NBC is a good acquisition, it'll think more would be better.