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Home sales hit 26-year high in September

 

Motivated first-time buyers racing toward the Nov. 30 deadline for an $8,000 tax credit propelled sales of previously owned homes in September to the highest monthly gain in 26 years.

Sales rose 9.2 percent over the same month in 2008 and 9.4 percent from August, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.

Since February, more than 340,000 qualified first-time buyers have taken advantage of the credit, which is retroactive to Jan. 1.

Recognizing how critical the tax credit has been to a market on life support since the end of the national real estate boom in 2006, the housing industry has been pressuring Congress to extend it for another year and make it available to all buyers except investors and second-home purchasers.

"We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters, until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors' group.

Economists agree that continuing the tax credit - estimated to cost the government an additional $1 billion - is key to a housing recovery, now forecast for the second half of 2010.

The Realtors' group report "raises almost as many questions as it answers," said Joel L. Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers in Bucks County. "Clearly, the housing market is in much better shape than six months ago, when demand hit rock bottom. But aid from government incentives is disappearing, and how much demand will fall is somewhat unclear."

Unless the tax credit is both extended and expanded, economist Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight said, sales will take a hit and "house prices, which have stabilized recently, will start falling again."

Newport says he expects the credit also will have boosted new-home sales when the September data are released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

Although the eight-county Philadelphia region also is benefiting from the credit for first-time buyers, September sales year-over-year were basically flat, data collected by Prudential Fox & Roach's HomExpert Market Report show.

Sales rose 0.9 percent last month over September 2008. Median prices fell 4.1 percent in that time, to $207,275 from $216,120, reflecting the high percentage of first-timers looking to close deals on lower-priced homes ($350,000 and under) before the credit goes away.

"The majority of my buyers are first-time buyers seeking the tax credit," said Murray Rubin, a Prudential Fox & Roach agent in Marlton.

"Market activity is gaining momentum," he added.

Through September, fixed rates for 30-year mortgages ranged from 4.82 percent to slightly above 5 percent. On Thursday, Freddie Mac reported average 30-year fixed rates at 5 percent.

The previous best monthly percentage gain in sales was in January 1983, as the country was easing out of a recession that had been accompanied by interest rates in the high teens, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence.

Last month, median prices nationally fell 8.1 percent year over year, not only reflecting the first-timers in the market but the huge volume of foreclosed houses in Sun Belt and Rust Belt states, where values have plummeted 30 percent to 50 percent from the 2006 peak.

Foreclosure sales are a relatively small percentage of the Philadelphia region's market. Econsult Corp. vice president Kevin Gillen estimates that since the real estate boom ended, prices here have fallen only 12 percent.

 


Contact real estate writer Alan J. Heavens at 215-854-2472 or aheavens@phillynews.com.

Comments   
Posted 09:12 AM, 10/24/2009
LOTTABALONEY
Pennsylvania is supposed to have the number of retained residents. Its a very good place to live and that's why all those defaults and foreclosures are not likely here.
Posted 10:48 AM, 10/24/2009
kelprod1
Wow- imagine, a tax break creating economic growth....too bad the idiots in DC still continue to demonize tax cuts as "breaks for the rich". Endless governmental intervention and spending will NEVER grow a free market economy. Tax breaks have, can and do.
Posted 10:50 AM, 10/24/2009
Shabba Rommel
I love these bogus reports. The sales increase is a "false positive" where the numbers, seasonally adjusted for summer and reflecting the race to take advantage of the tax credit, are not valid at face value. Think I am wrong, look at the Case Shiller Index, Federal Reserve Central Bank minutes, rising foreclosures, commercial paper failures, continued lack of lending. Much like "cash for clunkers" there will be a massive drop off of sales in the Fall and after the tax credit ends. Further the tax credit is losing support in Congress as the US Debt level is simply too large and the tax credits are artificially inflating value at the expense of new homebuyers. But dont worry, the National Assn of Realtors and their army of misinformation (real estate agents) will be out there trying to convince the misinformed that the world is perfect.
Posted 12:06 PM, 10/24/2009
phillyskyline
kelprod, a tax CREDIT is entirely different from a tax CUT. Sounds like you should take an econ 101 course.
Posted 01:27 PM, 10/24/2009
kelprod1
phillyskyline....I know the difference. Tax credit & tax cut are the same thing only worded differently. It is a reduction in paying tax- which always drives economic growth.
Posted 03:15 PM, 10/24/2009
oakster
Cash for clunkers-only with houses.
Posted 06:32 AM, 10/25/2009
dpnstl
While tax credits may just be a "shot in the arm" and not necessarily a long-term fix for the housing market, I think they are worthwhile at this point..This is the worst housing market I have seen in the 30 years I have been in the business and it needs some help...The credit has been just enough to help give buyers that are "on the fence" that little nudge they need to move forward, plus gives them a little bit of insurance just in case prices have not bottomed out..There was a study done by the Rosen Group that showed the tax credit has been the primary reason buyers have returned to the market...I included the info from the survery as well as info and a link for Fix Housing First, a coalition that has been working to extend the tax credits, in a post I did at: . http://realestateconsumernews.com/home-sellers/homebuyer-tax-credit-has-been-primary-cause-of-recent-return-of-buyers-to-market-according-to-study/
7 comments
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