PhillyDeals: Has big real estate finally hit rock bottom?

John Cannon has been financing big real estate loans for $25 billion-asset Capmark Finance Inc. of Horsham and its predecessors since 1985, and he's never seen business this slow.

"There's nothing being bought and sold," Cannon told me by phone from the vast Virginia headquarters of government-controlled home lender Freddie Mac, one of the few outfits still pumping millions into buildings.

Capmark financed $1.5 billion in apartment deals during the first half of the year, down by half since early 2008. Almost all this year's lending was refinancing loans, funded by Freddie and Fannie Mae, and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

"They're the only viable lenders in U.S. commercial real estate right now," and all they do is residential real estate, not offices or industry, Cannon said.

He's seen slow markets before. The early 1990s, when the savings banks failed. But that "was a supply issue. You saw a lot of empty buildings. Now it's a liquidity issue." Banks aren't lending.

He's hoping things have hit bottom. Fannie and Freddie tightened credit sharply last year. Lately, they aren't requiring quite so many escrow payments, Cannon said hopefully. "Terms are getting looser. Spreads are coming down."

It's not that loan rates have fallen. It's the spread between what money costs and what Fannie and Freddie charge that tells the story, according to Cannon:

Back in the mid-2000s, loans were approved at less than 1 percent above the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate. That zoomed to 3.5 to 4 percent above the benchmark during last fall's credit crisis, after the Bush administration took control of Fannie and Freddie. Now it's around 2 percent, Cannon says.

But banks still aren't coming back into the market. It's not just that they're shy. There's also "the disconnect between buyers' and sellers' expectations," Cannon told me. "Guys bought a building five years ago for $10 million. They don't want to sell for $8 million."

Archer Daniels Midland Co., Decatur, Ill., says it's closing its Glassboro cocoa plant and ending jobs for 53 workers there. The work is moving to ADM's new 500,000-square foot plant in Hazleton, says spokesman Roman Blahoski.

Democrats in Congress and the Obama White House are plotting to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Benjamin Bernanke and replace him with Obama's chief economic adviser, Larry Summers, at the end of his term next year, writes veteran bank analyst Richard X. Bove of Connecticut-based Rochdale Securities.

Summers is the brainy Main Line native, Harvard economist, and ex-Treasury Secretary who's trying to re-regulate the financial institutions he helped deregulate under President Bill Clinton, setting the stage for the current mess.

Bernanke or Summers - what's the difference? "Mr. Bernanke has demonstrated a willingness to act to defend both the economy and the financial system. Conversely, Mr. Summers has written the bulk of the proposals to regulate the financial industry," which Bove says "would dramatically restrict fund flow to the economy" and kill the recovery like the government did when it tightened credit rules too soon in 1937. (But when's the right time?)

Bove credits Bernanke, ex-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and FDIC chief Sheila Bair with "bold, innovative action" that salvaged the banks and prevented a full U.S. takeover. Bush and Obama at that time "did nothing." Congress was "the proverbial deer in the headlights."

Yet "the same people who were incapable of acting when there was a clear need for action will now make the decision as to whether the man who helped save the system should be removed."

Bernanke is set to testify before the House banking committee next Tuesday. Expect Fed critics to ask how he'll reverse the scary growth in the money supply without stalling the economy.