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Friday, June 5, 2009

Anyway you spin it, the job market is still bad

We’ll learn today how many jobs were destroyed by employers in May.

But, to use the jargon of Wall Street, even if the number “beats estimates,” let’s not get too excited.

It’s probably recession/bailout fatigue, but I’ve run out of patience for the economic spin doctors from both extremes - the doom and gloomers as well as the sunny optimists.

Already this week, I’ve heard chief investment officers and economists calling for a “four- or five-handle” on the employment report. That’s financial news show-speak for a monthly loss of jobs of 400,000 to 500,000.

Such a report would be promising, the optimists say, because it shows the job market is getting “less bad.” After all, the worst month for job loss stands as January, when U.S. employers shed 741,000 workers.

But when the job market has turned from a comfy warm tub to a scalding cauldron of acid, wonky discussions about the temperature seem to miss the point:

It’s a lousy job market, and it’s going to stay bad for some time to come.

Yes, 500,000 is a smaller figure than 700,000. Forgive me if I save the champagne for the month when employers are creating jobs again.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the United States has lost 5.7 million jobs. Pick any survey of forecasters you want and none predicts job creation beginning before 2010. Think deep into 2010.

For the 132 million of us counted in non-farm payroll statistics, that’s worrisome. For the 13.7 million unemployed identified in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ household survey, that’s downright depressing.

The economists at IHS Global Insight are among the more optimistic. They project a decline in payroll employment of 450,000 in May. “In normal circumstances a decline of 450,000 jobs would be seen as very bad news,” IHS said in a recent note.

Their point is these are not normal times, so coming after the loss of 539,000 jobs in April, 699,000 jobs in March and 681,000 in February, IHS views a four-handle as “clear improvement.”

What’s clear to me is that we have a lot of pain to endure before we harvest Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “green shoots.”
Posted by Mike Armstrong @ 4:33 AM  Permalink | 9 comments
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:05 AM, 06/05/2009
    This is good news. Each month we should see this number dwindle, until there's no one left to layoff.
    — Jean Valjean
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:46 AM, 06/05/2009
    Can "green roots" grow through cement? FYI: UN warns global jobs crisis may last eight years By Bill Van Auken 4 June 2009 The jobs crisis presently sweeping the globe may last for eight years, according to a report issued Wednesday by the International Labor Organization (ILO). The United Nations agency, meeting in Geneva, warned that sustained high levels of unemployment will imperil “social and political stability” internationally. SEE http://www.wsws.org/articles/2009/jun2009/ilo-j04.shtml
    — Karl Marx
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:44 AM, 06/05/2009
    What happens in a year when all these people still have no jobs and their unemployment has run out? I'm sure those dopes in Washington will think of something! Everything is fine they have it under control go back to sleep!
    — hexyscores
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 8:52 AM, 06/05/2009
    I'm just baffled by people who get paid by "guestimating, and most of the time they are wrong!!
    — Angel R.
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:34 AM, 06/05/2009
    Investors/Economists are clinging to anything that might show the recession is slowing....the stock market jumped 30% since its March lows based on the fact that "Company A" lost $30 million dollars versus the $33 million they were projected to lose and The economy contracted at 2.5% instead of the project 2.7%.....Still at least 12-18 months before we hit the bottom in my opinion....
    — RPS33
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:31 AM, 06/05/2009
    being unemployed sucks.
    — rippman89
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:04 PM, 06/05/2009
    To all your lefty liberals out, what do you think of your messiah now? He is doing a great job now.
    — flyers stink
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:10 AM, 06/06/2009
    I always have worked I never been unemployed more than a few weeks. For the last 11 years in Philly I have enjoyed great jobs and good salary. Philly has been good to me. I worked in web design my whole career and have been through three bubble busts. Adapt and overcome people. Adapt and overcome. Out last these bastards.
    — Boka


9 comments
About Mike Armstrong
Mike Armstrong, a business editor and writer for nearly two decades, is the Inquirer's business columnist and PhillyInc blog editor. Contact Mike via e-mail or at 215-854-2980
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