Posted: Saturday, September 5, 2009, 5:15 AM | 0 comments |
 
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(Guru's note: This is the third of three blog posts for Saturday being separated due to unrelated content. It appears, though, the two right beneath this one posted in reverse order to what the precede says, but you get the idea.)

By Mel Greenberg

Well, it was quite the night Friday, in the logjam race for playoff spots that will end next weekend.

The Connecticut Sun saved themselves from a near-fatal fall but in the process dispatched the New York Liberty 88-85 in overtime to the draft lottery, which should result in a good  placement for either selection or trade value.

The Detroit Shock took a huge step, also in overtime, beating the Indiana Fever at home, 70-62, as the Fever have yet to clinch an outright East crown, though they own the top playoff seed in the conference. Their slide, however, could cost them overall home court advantage since they are now tied in the loss column with Phoenix.

The Atlanta Dream continued to make the all-time jump from rookie status (4-30 last year) to clinching a .500 record (17-14) with a 98-90 win at Sacramento that left the Monarchs hanging by a fingernail.

This is how it stands for the folks in an area once known for panning gold. If Minnesota drops out of the equation, Sacramento needs San Antonio to lose all four remaining games and the Monarchs must win their remaining two games including one next week with San Antonio. In that tie, the Monarchs would go at 3-1 over the Silver Stars on the season. They also need Minnesota lose all four remaining games, though the Guru will update this all after Saturday's games in terms of Sacramento.

And Chicago at home made a slight step forward while Washington stumbled backwards with the Sky winning in the Midwest, 91-86.

So let's go to the board.

Eastern Group:

Atlanta: Road (2): at Phoenix - Sept. 5; at Washington - Sept. 12.

Home (1) Connecticut- Sept. 11.

Washington: Road (2) at Indiana - Sept. 5; at New York - Sept. 13.

Home (1) Atlanta - Sept. 12.

Chicago: Road (1) ar Detroit - Sept. 6.

Home (2) Indiana - Sept. 10; Detroit - Sept. 12.

Connecticut: Road (1) at Atlanta, Sept. 11.

Home (1) Indiana - Sept. 13.

Detroit: Road (2) at Minnesota - Sept. 9; at Chicago - Sept. 12

Home (2) Chicago - Sept. 6; New York - Sept. 10.

New York: eliminated

Summary: Basically everyone must keep winning, although Detroit may have a margin of error.

Here are best-case scenaio forecasts without regard to upsets. Wild card has become Indiana finishing out with Katie Douglas sidelined in terms of affecting other Eastern teams. Also, remember that while each is looked at as team's best hope, those that success will be costly to others' best hopes.

Atlanta: 2-1 or 1-2. We'll update after Saturday to look at tie-break situation.

Washington: 1-2 or 2-1 but a win at Indiana Sunday would be big for many reasons. And the Mystics better win at New York next week.

Chicago: 0-3 but the Sky grabbed one on Friday against Washington. Nothing easy with Indiana plus a home-and-home with Detroit left.

Connecticut: lost a forecasted win and now could be either 2-1 or 1-2 with help needed. Being right behind a bunched ground of Washington, Detroit, and Chicago, the Sun may have to go 3-0 because Detroit does not appear likely to take a deep slide and Connecticut needs to minimize tie-breakers for the last spot.

Detroit: 3-1 picked up another steal and is in great shape. Could even go 4-0.

Western Group (and remember we're talking about qualifying, not placement):

Minnesota: Road (2) at Los Angeles - Sept. 11; at Sacramento - Sept. 13.

Home: (2) Seattle - Sept. 5; Detroit - Sept. 9.

San Antonio: Road (2) at Los Angeles - Sept. 8; at Sacramento - Sept. 10.

Home (2) Los Angeles - Sept. 5; Seattle - Sept. 12.

Sacramento: Road (0)

Home (2) San Antonio - Sept. 10; Minnesota - Sept. 13.

Summary: San Antonio must win Saturday in Los Angeles to get some breathing space. 

Minnesota: 1-3 but could lose all 4. The Lynx really needed to beat San Antonio.

San Antonio: 3-1 is not out of question but more likely 2-2 although nothing is a lock in projected wins.

Sacramento: 1-1 but, as said, must go 2-0.

-- Mel

 

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About Mel Greenberg
Mel Greenberg covers college and pro women’s basketball for the Philadelphia Inquirer, where he has worked for 38 years. Greenberg pioneered national coverage of the game, including the original Top 25 women's college poll. His knowledge has earned him nicknames such as "The Guru" and "The Godfather. He was inducted into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame in 2007.



Click here for Mel's list of All-Decade players from Philadelphia-area schools.

Other contributors

Jonathan Tannenwald is a producer with Philly.com. In addition to covering the local college scene, he spent two years as the Washington Mystics beat writer for Women's Hoops Guru. He also writes his own blog, Soft Pretzel Logic, which covers men's college basketball, football, and other sports.

Kathleen Radebaugh is a recent graduate of St. Joseph's University in Philadelphia. She covered women's basketball for the school's newspaper, The Hawk, and served as sports editor her sophomore year. She was also a four-year member of the varsity crew team.

Erin Semagin Damio covers the University of Connecticut and the WNBA's Connecticut Sun for the blog, and contributes other features. The Storrs, Conn., native also attends Northeastern University, where she is a coxswain on the varsity crew team.

Acacia O'Connor is based in Washington, D.C., where she reports on the Mystics and the college basketball scene in the nation's capital. A graduate of Vassar college, she played on the varsity women's basketball team and was editor of the student newspaper.

Click on any of the contributors' names above to e-mail them.