Winter hors d’oeuvres in fall outlook

Everything we've encountered regarding long-range forecast has provided convincing evidence that nature's secrets remain safe.

Nevertheless, meteorologists keep trying, and in recent years we have seen some hints of progress, particularly in understanding how the Pacific influences weather across North America.

For example, citing the unusually warm surface waters in the tropical Pacific last fall – El Nino – the consensus forecast were on the mild start to winter.

The clues this time around aren't quite as robust, as the Pacific waters have cooled and might be headed toward La Nina, El Nino's mirror opposite, although that's not certain.

Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist for the Weather Co. (formerly WSI) believes that any La Nina would likely be a weaker one and that waters in the eastern North Pacific would remain generally warm.

After a warm start to fall, that would favor a flip to cold in November that could persist into the winter, he said, leading to an increase in energy demand.

The Commodity Weather Group's outlook is quite similar. It sees the odds favoring a mild September and October, yielding to a November chill what would lap into December.

For now, we recommend savoring the finest run of weather since the solstice.