In addition to last month's record warmth worldwide, the government's monthly climate report released Thursday contained a reference that could be interpreted as encouraging for those who enjoy skiing and the occasional school closing.
The Eurasian October snow cover was well above normal – the sixth-most extensive in 48 years of monitoring –something that some experts view as a potential indicator for winter snow in the Northeast.
Glenn Schwartz mentioned this in his winter forecast, which, by the way, makes for fine reading and does have some warm thoughts for those who appreciate a good snow day once in awhile.
The updated winter outlook by the government's Climate Prediction Center, however, probably won't warm the hearts of skiers and those who make a living off of them.
It has about two-thirds of the nation painted in a zone that favors above-normal temperatures for December through February -- including the entire northern half of the contiguous United States and Alaska, with only an outside chance of a colder-than-normal winter.
Predictably, in its prognostic discussion, the climate center said the outlook was influence heavily by the El Nino simmering in the tropical Pacific.
The government outlook, we reiterate, is the most ambiguous of them all because it is objective and is confined to the strict limits of the science. In another word, it's honest.
To recap: In the government's scheme, the temperatures and precipitation are forecast in three categories, each with a 33.3 percent chance of occurring – normal, above normal, and below.
For our area, the chance for above-normal temperatures is slightly elevated to 40 percent. Thus the chances for below-normal would be under 26.7 percent.
In parts of the Great Lakes region, it sees a 70 percent likelihood of above-normal. The climate center computes that the chances of below-normal temperatures in those regions is a miniscule 3.3 percent.
This won't do much for the ski folks, but the outlook does have a tantalizing stripe favoring above-normal precipitation along the East Coast.
El Nino is expected to generate a brisk storm traffic across the United States, as it did in 1997-98 when a succession of nor'easters pounded the Jersey beaches.
As for snow, however, that winter less than an inch was measured in Philadelphia.